Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7894a0b8839f62e1a2e5f7aa812af4b5f343ae2886026bd6554d28033c8b5366
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 40c | 458.14$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.32 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 50c | 309.69$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 40c | 259.6$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.03 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 30c | 252$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 243.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…522dbacked Yes | 37c | 182.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.61 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 178.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 18c | 158.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.92 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 26c | 152.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.63 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 30c | 143.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 127.85$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 42c | 124$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 44c | 119.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 104.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 64c | 102$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 98.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 97.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked No | 65c | 83.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 22c | 72.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 72.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 58c | 67.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 65.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed Yes | 18c | 64.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 47c | 63.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 61.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 67c | 61.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 71c | 59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 58c | 56.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 75c | 53.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 51.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed No | 63c | 48.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 70c | 45.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658e…2914backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 42.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 64c | 40.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…ae3ebacked No | 74c | 37.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 33c | 35.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 32c | 34.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 33.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15da…4e2abacked No | 61c | 31.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…0b4dbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 54c | 29.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 44c | 27.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 70c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 25.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 74c | 25.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 24.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce4…46aebacked No | 75c | 24.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 19.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 15.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.