MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa59dbd991ffecb23a29b2d8a183b8a88e0e92c10eb50c24fd04ea102f613fbe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc202…1623backed No | 48c | 4,779$2,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,485.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 52c | 3,197$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,662.51 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 53c | 910.98$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.82 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed No | 46c | 785.45$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.67 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked Yes | 54c | 600.87$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.07 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed Yes | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 48c | 500$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 45c | 297.58$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.67 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 52c | 291.27$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.46 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 46c | 277.78$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…0f04backed Yes | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 53c | 146$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 47c | 93.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 53c | 59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Yes | 55c | 39.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Yes | 54c | 36.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacksthis page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona DiamondbacksChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.