MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf631135739302d968cd2f6f07d63bbf0d7f40e3c05b25a4446c43ad25d635c49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 55c | 90,000$49,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,500 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 45c | 76,470$34,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,058.57 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 45c | 24,000$10,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,200 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 7,847$4,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,314.07 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed Over | 53c | 6,855$3,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,634.05 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Under | 44c | 6,045$2,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,384.92 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.98 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 55c | 2,378$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.4 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 45c | 1,207$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.07 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Over | 55c | 1,136$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 56c | 1,135$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.6 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Over | 55c | 908.98$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.94 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 45c | 779.99$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 49c | 499.96$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.98 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 373.83$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked Over | 55c | 360$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 58c | 289.95$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.16 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 287$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.85 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 26c | 255.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 55c | 233$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.15 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 55c | 227.27$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 220.6$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.11 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 181.15$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Over | 55c | 140$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 125.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 44c | 118.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 37c | 106.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 43c | 96.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed Over | 55c | 91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…9f72backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa422…d210backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 74.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 65.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked Over | 51c | 56.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 71c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 55c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 45c | 48.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ef…6d36backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked Under | 46c | 44.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 62c | 37.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Over | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed Under | 45c | 35.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 56c | 18.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 56c | 18.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4f…5ec9backed Over | 55c | 18.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…ef3abacked Over | 59c | 17.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona DiamondbacksChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.