MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ebd8fc68f1bf74caa8abb918c704134cdab9ab0bb0203d8295ab22c30f6de59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Under | 56c | 1,672$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.36 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 44c | 1,643$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.21 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 56c | 1,500$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 976.52$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.77 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 510$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.74 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 79c | 406.21$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 76c | 399$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.36 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 73c | 203.97$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 56c | 141$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536f…7ebabacked Over | 36c | 136.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 120.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 91.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 43c | 88.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 54c | 68.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 36c | 66.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Over | 46c | 54.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 76c | 47.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 43.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 45c | 39.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 44c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 46c | 21.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2481…878dbacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona DiamondbacksChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.