Golf · resolved market

Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5ba63790475da11dc3e88626f942a314ba6aa0ddc7673f0fa594b76d4f1a6b8

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $47,884
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $60,066

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,884 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6b7c…5f83backed No	51c	7,259$3,705 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,704.71	50	44%22 W · 28 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…5d07backed Yes	51c	5,500$2,809 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,690.63	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.23per pick	43cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb729…4e2ebacked Yes	26c	3,902$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,902.18	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.20per pick	40cpaid	+63.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes	79c	2,047$1,611 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$435.5	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.3wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No	77c	1,740$1,338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,337.69	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	34cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Yes	17c	1,631$276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,354.51	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1221…5aadbacked Yes	2c	829.92$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$815.91	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+640.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed No	23c	662.86$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.76	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes	27c	600$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$435.2	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40c4…adbebacked Yes	16c	500$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$418	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed Yes	48c	418.87$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$218.87	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe239…14eabacked No	26c	326.6$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.12	26	69.2%18 W · 8 L	+3.9wins	+0.15per pick	54cpaid	+45.6%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4fdb…0b12backed No	63c	300$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.5	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-81.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed No	23c	278.89$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.26	33	60.6%20 W · 13 L	+2.7wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed No	17c	269.6$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.82	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed No	57c	247.48$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.8	70	62.9%44 W · 26 L	+4.5wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd263…54a7backed No	75c	229.39$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.04	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8fa…be38backed Yes	23c	218.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.34	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	+118.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65d4…4e71backed Yes	75c	205.6$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.52	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40d5…acd1backed Yes	28c	188.03$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.59	75	29.3%22 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bff…c3e6backed Yes	16c	153$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.21	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.84per pick	16cpaid	+517.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbac…57cdbacked Yes	20c	150$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	14cpaid	+67.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9097…b5d1backed Yes	19c	143.3$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.81per pick	19cpaid	+415.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73e6…37dbbacked Yes	23c	127.79$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.79	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+42%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf15…2f3dbacked Yes	21c	119.67$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.67	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked No	70c	109.73$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.17	49	28.6%14 W · 35 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4b0…bf41backed Yes	52c	104.07$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.07	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb5e0…07d3backed Yes	30c	100$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes	28c	89.29$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.29	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	25cpaid	+19%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc936…ec95backed Yes	35c	83.6$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.2	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc7e…06a2backed Yes	29c	59.57$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.48	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-72.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed No	75c	50.78$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.14	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed No	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.07	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7862…0cdebacked Yes	63c	41.22$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.22	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b60…76d5backed No	52c	36.83$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.01	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x296d…c8e7backed Yes	75c	27.61$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.95	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9177…5305backed Yes	79c	14.89$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.2	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event