Golf · resolved market

Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad7f2c08ff8c8f8a42454f9d5308a75489cb1f75f04b7a81cd77fd36d83c0b27

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $37,418
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $28,663

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,418 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x27c3…301fbacked Yes	7c	7,138$491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.99	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Yes	4c	6,100$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.81	68	7.4%5 W · 63 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cd0…432ebacked Yes	3c	3,516$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Yes	5c	1,540$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.86	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	1,388$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.27	295	3.7%11 W · 284 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes	6c	1,363$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.9	172	26.7%46 W · 126 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	4c	628$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.12	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68a9…eff9backed Yes	10c	511.6$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	37cpaid	-72.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.7	39	2.6%1 W · 38 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5387…c91ebacked Yes	4c	400$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	5c	357.96$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.94	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4725…619bbacked Yes	6c	267$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.54	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	17cpaid	-88%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1940…e8adbacked Yes	8c	261$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.62	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a21…0229backed Yes	8c	224.94$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.97	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	14cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event