NFL · resolved market
Jaguars vs. Dolphins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5f90e150b713858ed3bd074cef4bbe188e4d55e79c0b27e873524bfcf4ca9fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dolphins of Jaguars , Dolphins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Jaguars | 22c | 9,374$2,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,087.92 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Dolphins | 80c | 7,372$5,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,475.23 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Dolphins | 73c | 3,644$2,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.38 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Jaguars | 34c | 2,104$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.46 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Dolphins | 64c | 1,827$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.82 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…1ccbbacked Dolphins | 73c | 1,407$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.67 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Jaguars | 27c | 1,243$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.74 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Dolphins | 74c | 968.73$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.35 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Dolphins | 71c | 800$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 121 | 33.9%41 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Jaguars | 28c | 594.64$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Jaguars | 20c | 504.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 221 | 42.1%93 W · 128 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Jaguars | 26c | 499.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Jaguars | 30c | 480.77$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.23 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…8091backed Jaguars | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Jaguars | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…cb54backed Dolphins | 73c | 396.7$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Dolphins | 80c | 389.47$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Jaguars | 26c | 367.34$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Dolphins | 71c | 346$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Jaguars | 30c | 337.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed Jaguars | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Jaguars | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Jaguars | 10c | 320.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Jaguars | 32c | 311.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Jaguars | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe483…b5a0backed Dolphins | 72c | 277.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.51 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Jaguars | 13c | 262.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Jaguars | 29c | 233$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Dolphins | 72c | 203.87$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Jaguars | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Jaguars | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 263 | 31.6%83 W · 180 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Jaguars | 29c | 172.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed11…a858backed Jaguars | 22c | 139.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Jaguars | 9c | 138.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Dolphins | 74c | 135.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Dolphins | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Jaguars | 30c | 117.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Jaguars | 30c | 116$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Jaguars | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 284 | 36.3%103 W · 181 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Jaguars | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked Jaguars | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…0f12backed Dolphins | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Dolphins | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Jaguars | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Dolphins | 71c | 72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -9.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Jaguars | 28c | 69.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…1c7bbacked Jaguars | 30c | 69.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Jaguars | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…27debacked Jaguars | 25c | 63.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed Dolphins | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Dolphins | 79c | 50.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Jaguars | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Jaguars | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…b1cfbacked Dolphins | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd18e…4c92backed Jaguars | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Jaguars | 28c | 44.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Jaguars | 28c | 39.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Dolphins | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 207 | 60.9%126 W · 81 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc504…8cfebacked Dolphins | 72c | 33.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +56%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd1…4b94backed Dolphins | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.