Serie A · resolved market
Juventus FC vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5fbae2a4c7fcf8cb685c4d25fd6d89f4659005ea637087beb9f98e26f88454f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 11c | 3,199$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.89 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 9c | 1,016$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Over | 5c | 600$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 74c | 425$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.2 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 11c | 399.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 124 | 22.6%28 W · 96 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 14c | 315.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x678e…63febacked Over | 26c | 229$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 23c | 218.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…5165backed Over | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Over | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Over | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 13c | 155.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 387 | 39.8%154 W · 233 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 7c | 144$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Over | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 13c | 82.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc149…bb7abacked Over | 23c | 71.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Juventus FC vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5this page
- Juventus FC vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Juventus FC vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5Over won
- Juventus FC vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5Over won
- Juventus FC vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.