Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5fd18a5853aae0150ea512a4de02795f11551734b1e26df22262d753518d06e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd418…062ebacked Yes | 72c | 1,867$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…c655backed Yes | 2c | 807.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 549.32$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 29c | 386.7$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.02 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 310.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 66c | 297.11$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.94 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 15c | 275$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked Yes | 14c | 240.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 64c | 228.57$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.57 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 224.87$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked No | 74c | 177.73$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 37c | 175.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 43c | 167.73$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 31c | 125.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.11 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…75aebacked No | 38c | 116.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 17c | 103.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.7 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 66c | 100.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 45c | 98.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 97.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 94.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 54c | 90.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 29c | 88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…43dcbacked Yes | 47c | 80.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 75c | 67.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 45c | 66.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 51c | 65.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 21c | 65.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 52c | 58.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 52c | 58.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e62…e6febacked No | 56c | 57.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…8c8bbacked Yes | 33c | 56.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 60c | 55.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 38c | 52.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 44c | 48.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed Yes | 42c | 48.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 42c | 48.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 29c | 48.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…1d95backed No | 58c | 44.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…2f75backed No | 68c | 42.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…5e59backed Yes | 46c | 41.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 41.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 33c | 41.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 48c | 39.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…177fbacked Yes | 49c | 39.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…c646backed Yes | 36c | 39.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 38.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 61c | 38.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 37.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 35.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 35c | 35.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…45acbacked No | 52c | 34.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 52c | 32.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed No | 77c | 32.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 43c | 31.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 29.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc1…99e6backed No | 68c | 28.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfb…b57dbacked Yes | 44c | 26.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 71c | 26.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 25.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 52c | 24.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 42c | 24.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 65c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9915…0cfebacked No | 57c | 19.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…31c2backed No | 62c | 17.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.