Premier League · resolved market
Arsenal FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa615d6428ba7329e7325653a802818fb692889793569d6a2c8fd8002254fbb3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 15c | 2,813$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.87 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e83…983dbacked Under | 80c | 1,331$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.25 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 77cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Over | 21c | 1,237$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.77 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Over | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Over | 4c | 511.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 108 | 74.1%80 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 79c | 297.61$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 9c | 132.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 22c | 121.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Under | 79c | 101$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa695…c8a4backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Under | 79c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16e4…0641backed Under | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 80c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 271 | 73.8%200 W · 71 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 76cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Arsenal FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Brighton & Hove Albion FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.