NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6321d5758088d35ffc61dbce23ba70be846c7612f66fca804263e2ae30e618a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 52,994$24,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,745.71 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe9…1113backed Under | 53c | 47,558$25,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,352.05 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 49c | 22,396$11,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,034.15 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 54c | 14,598$7,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,715.17 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf90e…0b56backed Under | 51c | 12,000$6,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,879.99 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 53c | 3,566$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,676.09 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +29%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 2,320$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.24 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Under | 52c | 1,456$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.01 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 1,239$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.86 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Under | 53c | 789$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.83 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 46c | 626.97$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.4 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 50c | 475.75$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.87 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 51c | 444$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.56 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 49c | 303.45$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.69 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 300$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.13 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 53c | 284$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.48 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Over | 49c | 215.57$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.63 | 253 | 58.5%148 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 56c | 130$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 51c | 121.48$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 119$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 50c | 72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 50c | 72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 47c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 190 | 46.8%89 W · 101 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 53c | 51.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 161 | 50.9%82 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…d129backed Under | 53c | 40.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Over | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 48c | 31.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 53c | 30.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…7572backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -40%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 51c | 23.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…04e9backed Over | 49c | 23.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 46c | 23.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5this page
- Penguins vs. Red WingsPenguins won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.