Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa668e224556c81ec20c8571303d2e946446728307908d7e357cddd0bb709d919
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 55c | 926.18$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.36 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 59c | 338.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 44c | 299.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 45c | 220$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 207.92$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 40c | 204.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 58c | 193.57$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.48 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 29c | 180$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 170.81$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 63c | 168.63$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 167.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 157.49$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 126.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 45c | 121.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 43c | 120.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 18c | 113$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.14 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 34c | 111.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 42c | 106.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 41c | 105$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 103.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05c…d8fcbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 99.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 42c | 96.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 51c | 92.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 33c | 92.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 55c | 88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 54c | 86.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 79.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 46c | 76.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 43c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 51c | 74.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 51c | 70.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 49c | 67.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 43c | 66.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 54c | 64.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 26c | 64.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…4b79backed No | 45c | 59.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 42c | 59.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96a7…dd32backed No | 45c | 55.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 73c | 55.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 38c | 53.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 42c | 53.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…8849backed Yes | 58c | 51.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 42c | 51.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 43c | 51.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 34c | 51.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1eb…7afebacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 60c | 49.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 55c | 44.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 44.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 58c | 43.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 58c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 48c | 41.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 46c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 42c | 40.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 49c | 40.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed Yes | 59c | 39.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked No | 66c | 38.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 52c | 37.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 48c | 36.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 65c | 35.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 34.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5604…912bbacked Yes | 57c | 34.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 62cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 52c | 33.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 58c | 31.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 63c | 31.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 28.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 49c | 28.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ad…e4f7backed Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…a29ebacked Yes | 57c | 27.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 43c | 26.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 58c | 26.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 42c | 26.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 44c | 25.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 55c | 24.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 46c | 23.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 51c | 23.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 53c | 22.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 22.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…50b3backed No | 54c | 21.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 57c | 21.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 59c | 20.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 57c | 17.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 79c | 13.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.