TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,700
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,103

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,700 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x99bc…4f35backed No23c459.4$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.692,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes15c308.13$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.6541845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No62c249.98$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.481,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes42c240$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14025947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes38c225.54$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.0810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No66c204.81$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.338,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes27c204.45$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.565,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes70c199.6$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.796,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No58c197.05$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.24,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes37c186.03$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4122446.4%104 W · 120 L+31.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+35.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No66c185.9$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.1112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes42c174.81$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.891,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No50c168.63$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No46c167.5$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.15,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes72c156.15$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.952,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No51c155.56$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.851,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes75c128.77$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.756,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No48c120.59$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.087,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes76c118.56$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.561,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes28c112.7$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.73,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes27c112.66$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8794552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed Yes38c100.62$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5467158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb89b…1a22backed Yes67c100.32$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.099783.5%81 W · 16 L+26.5wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+58.5%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No30c100.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8738961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6315939%62 W · 97 L+14.4wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+28%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf05c…d8fcbacked Yes37c97.07$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.161346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No25c97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.254,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes36c95.03$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7440438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes41c94.74$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.935432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes39c94.51$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5272952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No72c91.03$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9853855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes29c88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.521,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes38c84.57$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4341331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes34c82.68$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.29,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No58c81.4$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.211,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes32c80$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.383,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes54c77.19$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2116641%68 W · 98 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd988…6ce5backed Yes76c75.68$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2811840.7%48 W · 70 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b23…3ca8backed No68c74.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2423538.3%90 W · 145 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes45c71.04$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.767855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes58c67.79$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.582,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No35c66.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.162,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes22c66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4827246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xede4…1c40backed No72c58.68$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2515369.9%107 W · 46 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick74cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a0c…74f9backed No59c58.12$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.098250%41 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes40c56.71$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2137355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes45c54$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.72,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc6…d496backed Yes64c53.52$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.126657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes43c51.06$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8631936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes39c50.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.667562.7%47 W · 28 L+10.3wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+26.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3134853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.558732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b17…f3febacked Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.58247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No57c44.92$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.665965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No67c44.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307967.1%53 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes45c43.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1946148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No70c42.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.882,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No68c40.63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.811,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes54c40.05$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.454431.8%14 W · 30 L-5.2wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes37c38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9458358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No68c36.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.641,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdb…b241backed No69c35.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.484864.6%31 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ead…0b4dbacked No57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204922.4%11 W · 38 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-47.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes41c32.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.224066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No57c32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.244,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.44,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70d2…2861backed Yes43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x997a…4cbebacked Yes42c29.71$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3219565.6%128 W · 67 L-0.8wins0.00per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94ae…d801backed Yes44c29.5$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5213950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No56c28.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0267336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d1f…8c58backed No68c28.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5618038.9%70 W · 110 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No55c28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.43,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No56c26.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526958.4%157 W · 112 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes44c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1233349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No58c24.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.392,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93f9…3e96backed No63c23.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.99475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3af9…1d33backed No63c23.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.99366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes55c23.58$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.512,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes80c21.25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2561676.3%470 W · 146 L+92.4wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No79c20.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.981,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.81,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb710…49c3backed No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.922937.9%11 W · 18 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.635344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.43,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No56c18.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0966944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee02…ce88backed No73c14.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9310764.5%69 W · 38 L+0.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.