Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Kashima Antlers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa686d23008862f414294d05795a2675f30411707f6adeb657a1f82c793c92bbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nagoya Grampusof Kashima Antlers, Nagoya Grampus
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Kashima Antlers | 27c | 3,769$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Kashima Antlers | 32c | 2,500$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.92 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nagoya Grampus | 73c | 2,119$1,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.99 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nagoya Grampus | 73c | 1,923$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.21 | 1,749 | 50.7%887 W · 862 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Kashima Antlers | 26c | 1,119$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.29 | 1,464 | 35.6%521 W · 943 L | -33.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Nagoya Grampus | 62c | 1,078$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.43 | 843 | 42.2%356 W · 487 L | +19.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Kashima Antlers | 35c | 931.42$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.78 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Nagoya Grampus | 74c | 726.02$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.77 | 1,235 | 49.9%616 W · 619 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Kashima Antlers | 27c | 500$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.38 | 177 | 42.4%75 W · 102 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Nagoya Grampus | 74c | 478$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.28 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Nagoya Grampus | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Nagoya Grampus | 74c | 389$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.94 | 1,662 | 36.2%602 W · 1,060 L | -34.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…02b5backed Kashima Antlers | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…a8b1backed Kashima Antlers | 29c | 204.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…0acebacked Kashima Antlers | 27c | 181.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Kashima Antlers | 25c | 176.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Nagoya Grampus | 74c | 151$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 1,126 | 46.3%521 W · 605 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Kashima Antlers | 27c | 149.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa212…9161backed Nagoya Grampus | 74c | 130$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Nagoya Grampus | 73c | 125.14$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…f16abacked Kashima Antlers | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Kashima Antlers | 25c | 81.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…4612backed Nagoya Grampus | 66c | 76.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Nagoya Grampus | 75c | 54.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 320 | 60%192 W · 128 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67c0…00d7backed Nagoya Grampus | 74c | 51.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Nagoya Grampus | 75c | 50.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Nagoya Grampus | 73c | 49.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e82…7ab7backed Nagoya Grampus | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Nagoya Grampus | 73c | 48.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 375 | 52%195 W · 180 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Nagoya Grampus | 74c | 43.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Nagoya Grampus | 70c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Nagoya Grampus | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…7b22backed Nagoya Grampus | 75c | 32.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Nagoya Grampus | 74c | 18.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6935backed Nagoya Grampus | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kashima Antlers (-1.5)this page
- Kashima Antlers vs. Nagoya Grampus: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Nagoya Grampus: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Nagoya Grampus: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Nagoya Grampus: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Nagoya Grampus: Kashima Antlers O/U 0.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Nagoya Grampus: Kashima Antlers O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Nagoya Grampus: Nagoya Grampus O/U 0.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Nagoya Grampus: Nagoya Grampus O/U 1.5Under won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 0.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5Under won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 4.5Under won
- Kashima Antlers vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Kashima Antlers (-2.5)Nagoya Grampus won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)Kashima Antlers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.