La Liga · resolved market
Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6a80703dd8089cc72dff57579ea7a05b46cc0a6c373aa363c902d454081de56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 25c | 1,585$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.28 | 138 | 24.6%34 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 18c | 1,393$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.38 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…9f36backed Under | 73c | 1,371$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 30c | 1,250$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.95 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0965…da73backed Under | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 736.68$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.44 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 69c | 507.68$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.68 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 51c | 506.08$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.16 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…87acbacked Over | 32c | 450$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 48c | 428.24$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.41 | 616 | 57.8%356 W · 260 L | +42.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 364.24$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.67 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 13c | 338.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 27.2%31 W · 83 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 13c | 250.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 29c | 236$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 154 | 43.5%67 W · 87 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 24c | 223.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…f06abacked Under | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 119.15$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 140 | 28.6%40 W · 100 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…ee4dbacked Over | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4208…13febacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 16c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12c…b9ecbacked Over | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +6.0wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Over | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 148 | 50.7%75 W · 73 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 71c | 74.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 53c | 71.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 284 | 46.5%132 W · 152 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…d938backed Over | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…6191backed Over | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 192 | 47.4%91 W · 101 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Over | 28c | 55.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 176 | 48.3%85 W · 91 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630e…bbd7backed Under | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 119 | 62.2%74 W · 45 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 74c | 33.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69c…3613backed Over | 32c | 32.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0497…c5e3backed Under | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 35c | 30.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 54c | 26.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…ae0dbacked Under | 56c | 25.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d98…84cabacked Under | 74c | 22.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 60c | 21.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Under | 76c | 13.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 4.5this page
- Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.