La Liga · resolved market

Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a03dff31699243b005d65183d03670ab22e1e85344c03d70f68e57d7fe7290e

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $43,156
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $47,857

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,156 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in La Liga
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under	48c	10,765$5,167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,167.02	97	48.5%47 W · 50 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Over	52c	9,385$4,880 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,504.62	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Under	49c	9,068$4,443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,443.37	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.1wins	-0.23per pick	45cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	52c	6,736$3,522 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,213.43	4,740	47%2,230 W · 2,510 L	-23.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Under	49c	3,027$1,483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,482.52	65	46.2%30 W · 35 L	-4.8wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Under	48c	2,000$960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$959.95	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under	48c	1,327$637 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$637.04	351	48.4%170 W · 181 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2060…9186backed Over	52c	1,000$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480	193	44.6%86 W · 107 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6084…e875backed Under	52c	912.08$476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$476.29	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.25per pick	59cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	48c	852.62$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.91	428	51.4%220 W · 208 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ba…2a30backed Over	52c	688$358 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$330.24	46	63%29 W · 17 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	62cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Under	48c	688$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.24	138	45.7%63 W · 75 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Over	43c	666.1$284 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$382.55	113	36.3%41 W · 72 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf42d…b35cbacked Over	52c	635.94$331 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$305.25	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96b4…c2f1backed Over	52c	498.88$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$238.88	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Under	45c	482$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.74	154	43.5%67 W · 87 L	-13.6wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x49a5…b220backed Under	48c	400$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.15per pick	56cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2d1…84a2backed Over	53c	399.99$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188	76	44.7%34 W · 42 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Over	52c	384.62$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.62	78	50%39 W · 39 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76ca…6a3abacked Over	52c	384.62$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.62	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.18per pick	44cpaid	+108.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1d4…8e51backed Over	65c	383.15$249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.1	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+2.1wins	+0.11per pick	41cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a0c…0beebacked Over	64c	311.12$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.12	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	+6.8wins	+0.14per pick	29cpaid	+88.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	61c	301.62$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.43	3,449	43%1,484 W · 1,965 L	+32.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a6…afa6backed Over	52c	288.46$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.46	40	40%16 W · 24 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb9a…412ebacked Over	52c	288.46$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.46	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over	51c	287.98$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.11	504	49.8%251 W · 253 L	+7.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over	51c	282.69$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.52	87	32.2%28 W · 59 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over	51c	250$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.5	890	50%445 W · 445 L	+24.8wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under	48c	221.15$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.15	1,038	48.1%499 W · 539 L	+17.4wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db0…f397backed Over	51c	210$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.5	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc40…c795backed Under	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under	60c	202.57$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.54	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x939d…3b3cbacked Over	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	226	38.5%87 W · 139 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Over	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	119	29.4%35 W · 84 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Under	49c	200$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	44	47.7%21 W · 23 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa374…9709backed Over	53c	200$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	67	56.7%38 W · 29 L	+9.8wins	+0.15per pick	42cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7efb…add5backed Over	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	61c	190.07$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.24	1,655	43.8%725 W · 930 L	-22.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked Over	51c	180$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.2	116	36.2%42 W · 74 L	-7.6wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x83d9…651bbacked Over	53c	173.3$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.11	601	47.9%288 W · 313 L	+50.5wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf292…1cc7backed Over	52c	153.85$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.85	148	50.7%75 W · 73 L	+7.9wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f1a…26c0backed Under	49c	153.06$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	40	45%18 W · 22 L	-5.1wins	-0.13per pick	58cpaid	-25%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8e30…db95backed Under	49c	142.86$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f03…dc32backed Over	40c	125$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf226…9c0fbacked Over	52c	121.13$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.14	53	49.1%26 W · 27 L	+3.4wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over	53c	114.11$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.11	421	58%244 W · 177 L	+29.1wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under	59c	103$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.77	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over	41c	100$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59	627	44.3%278 W · 349 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	154	51.3%79 W · 75 L	+14.2wins	+0.09per pick	42cpaid	+24%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	116	51.7%60 W · 56 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	168	65.5%110 W · 58 L	+8.5wins	+0.05per pick	60cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	59	40.7%24 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf035…d35fbacked Over	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.11per pick	61cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	46c	93.03$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.88	501	49.5%248 W · 253 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over	43c	93.02$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.02	340	50%170 W · 170 L	+16.6wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	174	55.2%96 W · 78 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d98…84cabacked Under	18c	88.24$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.88	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	31cpaid	+20%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf24b…d4cebacked Under	17c	88.24$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	52c	82.69$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.69	308	42.9%132 W · 176 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	47c	82.13$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.74	2,343	48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55e4…f67dbacked Over	52c	81.58$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.16	53	47.2%25 W · 28 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd11…79a5backed Over	52c	80$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.4	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-3.8wins	-0.16per pick	53cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc119…7d4dbacked Over	52c	76.92$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.92	324	44.8%145 W · 179 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	53c	75.7$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.29	1,508	38.7%583 W · 925 L	+12.4wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Over	52c	67.31$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.31	140	28.6%40 W · 100 L	-7.8wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Over	51c	60.34$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.54	411	47.9%197 W · 214 L	-9.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e01…2699backed Over	53c	58.87$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.67	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Over	52c	57.69$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.69	204	41.7%85 W · 119 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2d…8452backed Under	49c	51.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-3.5wins	-0.15per pick	37cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1835…83afbacked Over	40c	50$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7daf…ee4dbacked Under	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Under	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	255	51.4%131 W · 124 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7c…a489backed Over	52c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Over	44c	45.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.45	55	36.4%20 W · 35 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over	39c	43.59$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.59	387	48.1%186 W · 201 L	+17.0wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34a9…d343backed Over	46c	43.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f7e…c230backed Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	124	45.2%56 W · 68 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc101…98edbacked Under	58c	40$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	61cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Over	58c	40$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.88	51	52.9%27 W · 24 L	+3.2wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x079a…b899backed Over	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05bb…1879backed Over	52c	37.15$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.83	26	61.5%16 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Over	51c	35.35$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.32	262	42.7%112 W · 150 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked Over	52c	35$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	35	51.4%18 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7931…020abacked Under	49c	32.82$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.08	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x488c…a2dabacked Over	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	118	57.6%68 W · 50 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f99…e345backed Under	49c	26$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.74	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ef…0b77backed Over	40c	25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13b5…2c2cbacked Over	52c	21.15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.15	65	44.6%29 W · 36 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Over	52c	20.54$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.86	922	54.1%499 W · 423 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	64	46.9%30 W · 34 L	+5.7wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5this page
Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 1.5Over won
Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 3.5Under won
Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event