La Liga · resolved market
Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc72dfd9c06383fa6278a2e1aed0b35fd7d9adcdeec74265376b1a3a7b313cec7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 6,222$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532.82 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Over | 77c | 3,897$3,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.31 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 1,760$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.07 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 77c | 1,588$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.24 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 23c | 1,059$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.5 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…dcf1backed Under | 24c | 1,040$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.62 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 12c | 817.09$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2039…acddbacked Over | 77c | 649.9$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Over | 78c | 641.34$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.34 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 428 | 51.4%220 W · 208 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…1846backed Over | 77c | 324.68$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 19c | 321.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Over | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 26c | 299.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 154 | 43.5%67 W · 87 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…8a1bbacked Over | 70c | 297$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 321 | 45.8%147 W · 174 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 27c | 214.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 77c | 206.53$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Over | 73c | 206$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…e639backed Over | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed Over | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 76c | 170.83$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 504 | 49.8%251 W · 253 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 70c | 167.64$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…45d9backed Over | 77c | 142.86$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…e801backed Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 174 | 58.6%102 W · 72 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb4…d79fbacked Over | 77c | 130.84$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…e7cfbacked Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 99 | 66.7%66 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…b1bfbacked Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 81 | 70.4%57 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 24c | 112.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 70c | 107.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…ee4dbacked Under | 25c | 101.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 627 | 44.3%278 W · 349 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…271bbacked Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Over | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 95 | 71.6%68 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 77c | 90.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ff…b0e6backed Over | 77c | 90.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 77c | 90.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…b7e9backed Under | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 74c | 81.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 27c | 80.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d13…b939backed Over | 78c | 67.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Under | 25c | 67.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 79c | 62.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 174 | 55.2%96 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 23c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0247…bb07backed Over | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +6.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +27%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 137 | 60.6%83 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 76c | 48.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 411 | 47.9%197 W · 214 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 77c | 46.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed Over | 77c | 45.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 77c | 31.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Over | 77c | 25.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125c…f50abacked Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 77c | 22.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 76c | 20.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 616 | 57.8%356 W · 260 L | +42.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Over | 71c | 20.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…5a01backed Over | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 70c | 16.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…9fbcbacked Over | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 1.5this page
- Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.