TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
ThunderTalk Gamingof LGD Gaming, ThunderTalk Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,528
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,806

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,528 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x57b2…9da2backed LGD Gaming27c4,000$1,080 inLost-$1,08035443.2%153 W · 201 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed ThunderTalk Gaming45c2,545$1,145 inWon+$1,399.837948.3%183 W · 196 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked ThunderTalk Gaming73c2,295$1,675 inWon+$619.6996048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69b1…2687backed ThunderTalk Gaming73c2,001$1,461 inWon+$540.2730843.2%133 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed LGD Gaming55c1,745$957 inLost-$957.141,09638.9%426 W · 670 L-47.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeee5…3d51backed ThunderTalk Gaming75c1,335$1,000 inWon+$335.432867.9%19 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+49.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked LGD Gaming25c921.27$230 inLost-$230.3267549%331 W · 344 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd723…25bfbacked ThunderTalk Gaming69c630$436 inWon+$193.53935.9%14 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-24.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked LGD Gaming26c369.98$96 inLost-$96.152,92344.5%1,300 W · 1,623 L-91.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc31…971fbacked LGD Gaming52c299.99$156 inLost-$1561947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed ThunderTalk Gaming64c269.35$172 inWon+$97.2269741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked LGD Gaming27c240$65 inLost-$64.835642.4%151 W · 205 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed LGD Gaming48c222.96$106 inLost-$106.2797254.3%528 W · 444 L+46.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed LGD Gaming27c185.19$50 inLost-$5025441.7%106 W · 148 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed LGD Gaming25c174$44 inLost-$43.56855.9%38 W · 30 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed LGD Gaming23c155.51$36 inLost-$35.9726630.8%82 W · 184 L-26.5wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-42.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8e5e…0381backed ThunderTalk Gaming76c131.78$100 inWon+$31.7848951.5%252 W · 237 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed LGD Gaming24c118.13$28 inLost-$28.3842044%185 W · 235 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99ad…064ebacked ThunderTalk Gaming55c100$55 inWon+$455054%27 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23b5…97e1backed LGD Gaming15c85$13 inLost-$12.7525440.2%102 W · 152 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15fc…fec7backed ThunderTalk Gaming56c70.09$39 inWon+$31.0915253.9%82 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7ff…a74cbacked ThunderTalk Gaming64c55.65$36 inWon+$19.8917452.9%92 W · 82 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3a5…534cbacked LGD Gaming55c45.76$25 inLost-$2520739.1%81 W · 126 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca5f…41f5backed ThunderTalk Gaming42c43.66$18 inWon+$25.3120755.6%115 W · 92 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked ThunderTalk Gaming65c40.87$27 inWon+$14.261746.5%287 W · 330 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfce8…2686backed ThunderTalk Gaming75c40$30 inWon+$1014960.4%90 W · 59 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed ThunderTalk Gaming75c38.09$29 inWon+$9.522,49739.9%996 W · 1,501 L-75.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc91…fcabbacked LGD Gaming56c33.95$19 inLost-$199046.7%42 W · 48 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed19…b6ffbacked ThunderTalk Gaming63c31.7$20 inWon+$11.844555.6%25 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+31.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0548…2d86backed ThunderTalk Gaming75c27.91$21 inWon+$6.98666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c00…49c9backed LGD Gaming56c20$11 inLost-$11.1511057.3%63 W · 47 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.