MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6deb45a6828defcf997a58daba389215d7d2c91b962e6d878ecd90e81c2211a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 2,844$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.88 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under | 62c | 2,419$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.35 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 1,856$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 79c | 415$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 22c | 406.14$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.93 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 29c | 352.08$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.48 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 49c | 328.65$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.94 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 30c | 267.68$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 38c | 206.81$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.22 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 62c | 176.21$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.29 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 49c | 165$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 31c | 164.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 33c | 163$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 141.23$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…ed23backed Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 62c | 136.58$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…60febacked Over | 63c | 135.92$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 38c | 122.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 74c | 115$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 37c | 107.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Over | 63c | 103.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 48c | 102.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Under | 54c | 91.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 22c | 90.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Over | 49c | 59.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 64c | 56.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 67c | 55.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 69c | 50.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f76…3c44backed Under | 60c | 50.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Over | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 38c | 41.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Under | 46c | 31.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 65c | 30.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 69c | 23.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 58c | 22.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 49c | 21.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 72c | 20.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City RoyalsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.