MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6a911c3d7b3897ed8389de0533b786dd67bc13ed311a06662199806f8d593d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 35c | 1,650$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.05 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Kansas City Royals | 66c | 1,129$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.83 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 455.06$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.64 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked New York Yankees | 36c | 433.08$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.55 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed New York Yankees | 38c | 268.58$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.06 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 260.73$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.57 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed New York Yankees | 8c | 251.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 75c | 213.3$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 67c | 185.43$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked New York Yankees | 38c | 134.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 104.81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Kansas City Royals | 67c | 84.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Kansas City Royals | 66c | 82.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…60d0backed Kansas City Royals | 65c | 76.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Kansas City Royals | 66c | 59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 52.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Yankees | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked New York Yankees | 36c | 48.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Kansas City Royals | 66c | 45.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed New York Yankees | 36c | 44.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Yankees | 35c | 35.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Kansas City Royals | 67c | 35.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 55c | 33.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 26.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked Kansas City Royals | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked Kansas City Royals | 66c | 19.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff9d…1817backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f1…5b9fbacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City RoyalsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.