MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x182d75c24f39e651ddcc6c4374e3d040fd4650ce98322d7e34cce03f7be71b33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Under | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.99 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 56c | 1,705$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.2 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 42c | 900$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 42c | 799.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 638.2$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.9 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 44c | 634.72$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.28 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked Over | 42c | 450$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 58c | 324$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.08 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 51c | 262.8$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.85 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Over | 42c | 228.34$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 44c | 220$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8133…3109backed Over | 58c | 168.59$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 42c | 151.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 130$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 101.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 40c | 63.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 59c | 58.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 50.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 71c | 45.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 57c | 24.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 49c | 22.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City RoyalsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.