MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b6b02022e88db3c6048dfef633f3e052cdb9ac3b31790006eb5d021b08affd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof Kansas City Royals, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 1,749$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.9 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Yankees | 53c | 1,181$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.15 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 72c | 624.38$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.41 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed New York Yankees | 62c | 403.88$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.47 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 49c | 371.73$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.15 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed New York Yankees | 72c | 209.57$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Yankees | 71c | 162.44$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed New York Yankees | 72c | 154.41$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Kansas City Royals | 28c | 151.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked New York Yankees | 64c | 145.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Kansas City Royals | 29c | 126.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…2cfbbacked New York Yankees | 80c | 123.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Kansas City Royals | 51c | 119.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 101.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 74c | 78.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 21c | 76.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked New York Yankees | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 74.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals | 29c | 71.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Yankees | 51c | 71.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Kansas City Royals | 47c | 68.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed New York Yankees | 49c | 58.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…62babacked Kansas City Royals | 28c | 58.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked New York Yankees | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82d…7882backed Kansas City Royals | 28c | 48.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Kansas City Royals | 33c | 37.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Kansas City Royals | 44c | 31.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 79c | 27.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked New York Yankees | 49c | 22.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked New York Yankees | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked New York Yankees | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked New York Yankees | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City RoyalsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.