Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: FTS vs PuckChamp - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa70b381c7c9c20e5952d550e37f13e812decf2de28817f8dccce3862f25d39bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FTSof FTS, PuckChamp
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked FTS | 51c | 5,136$2,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,516.46 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked PuckChamp | 14c | 1,492$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.53 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked PuckChamp | 50c | 1,483$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.02 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdccd…f41abacked FTS | 45c | 1,426$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.66 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked PuckChamp | 54c | 1,164$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.89 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed PuckChamp | 11c | 930.58$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.35 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed PuckChamp | 2c | 801$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed FTS | 58c | 540.12$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.3 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked PuckChamp | 49c | 498.5$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.27 | 127 | 64.6%82 W · 45 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked PuckChamp | 51c | 473.97$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.08 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…0a08backed FTS | 45c | 443.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.19 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked PuckChamp | 61c | 442.25$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.59 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked PuckChamp | 5c | 429.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…95e2backed PuckChamp | 19c | 422.38$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172a…8b83backed PuckChamp | 49c | 412.24$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed PuckChamp | 23c | 400$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…c3f8backed FTS | 59c | 400$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.41 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked PuckChamp | 41c | 331.93$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.04 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked PuckChamp | 51c | 317.63$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.59 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked PuckChamp | 49c | 308$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.92 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…09b7backed PuckChamp | 61c | 302.28$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.24 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…823fbacked PuckChamp | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed PuckChamp | 28c | 269.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.74 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed PuckChamp | 54c | 267.4$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.7 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf529…755fbacked PuckChamp | 48c | 235$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed PuckChamp | 49c | 233.38$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.41 | 286 | 50%143 W · 143 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…101cbacked PuckChamp | 55c | 226$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.3 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d8…c931backed PuckChamp | 52c | 223.5$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.08 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…affdbacked FTS | 47c | 220$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb9…1d15backed FTS | 50c | 198.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…889fbacked FTS | 46c | 185.51$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.51 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed PuckChamp | 18c | 183.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3038backed PuckChamp | 41c | 169.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 235 | 62.1%146 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked PuckChamp | 14c | 165$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed FTS | 52c | 164.08$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.36 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked PuckChamp | 49c | 161.22$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…e7d8backed PuckChamp | 48c | 156.91$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed PuckChamp | 24c | 153.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 194 | 40.7%79 W · 115 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked PuckChamp | 50c | 148$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…89ebbacked PuckChamp | 48c | 144.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked PuckChamp | 39c | 142.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f42…1f72backed FTS | 77c | 125.7$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 318 | 65.1%207 W · 111 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked PuckChamp | 59c | 114.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.38 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…f884backed PuckChamp | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fd…3193backed PuckChamp | 48c | 101.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed FTS | 65c | 100.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdc…9704backed PuckChamp | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…ebdcbacked PuckChamp | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed PuckChamp | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed PuckChamp | 52c | 96.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…8b19backed PuckChamp | 45c | 95.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…2debbacked PuckChamp | 54c | 94.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 195 | 47.7%93 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x072e…df3abacked PuckChamp | 55c | 83.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed PuckChamp | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x422d…7e39backed PuckChamp | 41c | 73.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…3dfabacked PuckChamp | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed PuckChamp | 49c | 57.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…1d2abacked PuckChamp | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…cfcbbacked PuckChamp | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed PuckChamp | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed FTS | 72c | 48.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed FTS | 60c | 47.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | -13.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab05…52e9backed FTS | 50c | 42.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07d…4ee1backed PuckChamp | 50c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…e27cbacked PuckChamp | 49c | 40.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1efb…dd8abacked PuckChamp | 55c | 36.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…f02dbacked PuckChamp | 52c | 33.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4339…beeebacked PuckChamp | 69c | 30.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: FTS vs PuckChamp - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: FTS vs PuckChamp (BO3) - Asgard Championship PlayoffsFTS won
- Dota 2: FTS vs PuckChamp - Game 2 WinnerFTS won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.