Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: FTS vs PuckChamp - Game 2 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38f642c55463a775261608a24349d4660ec1ed2e0f527f033aa5281cb5868b24

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: FTSof FTS, PuckChamp
Resolved: Aug 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $30,243
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $37,856

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,243 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x948a…d1a4backed PuckChamp	61c	3,938$2,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,400	242	55%133 W · 109 L	+14.3wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked PuckChamp	62c	2,988$1,861 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,861.22	892	38.1%340 W · 552 L	-42.7wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdccd…f41abacked FTS	32c	2,485$783 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,701.49	122	52.5%64 W · 58 L	+17.2wins	+0.14per pick	38cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked PuckChamp	60c	2,387$1,432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,432.14	899	38%342 W · 557 L	-45.9wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-30%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked FTS	39c	2,084$804 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,280.4	798	59%471 W · 327 L	+16.1wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebb9…1d15backed FTS	44c	1,139$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$639.2	95	35.8%34 W · 61 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked PuckChamp	64c	868.21$557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$557.01	610	57.9%353 W · 257 L	+2.8wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed PuckChamp	70c	852.84$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	192	51%98 W · 94 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91b9…889fbacked FTS	38c	818.83$310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$508.83	91	45.1%41 W · 50 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed FTS	41c	723.55$297 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$426.56	265	50.6%134 W · 131 L	+12.0wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed FTS	36c	599.98$218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$381.99	507	69.2%351 W · 156 L	+33.7wins	+0.07per pick	63cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4087…048bbacked FTS	36c	542.7$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$345.83	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2965…89ebbacked FTS	52c	528.42$277 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$251.13	102	51%52 W · 50 L	+4.0wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked FTS	65c	484.69$314 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.58	310	52.6%163 W · 147 L	+15.3wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	-2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked PuckChamp	11c	421.09$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.32	1,521	37.9%576 W · 945 L	-57.8wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a76…53debacked FTS	23c	416.3$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$320.09	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x242c…ddd2backed FTS	41c	406.41$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.42	214	47.2%101 W · 113 L	+16.7wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed PuckChamp	60c	399.98$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.99	799	59.4%475 W · 324 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9208…08c5backed FTS	29c	344.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.33	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.29per pick	46cpaid	+68%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed FTS	38c	299.96$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.98	324	45.1%146 W · 178 L	+14.7wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed PuckChamp	60c	282$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.14	1,120	36.1%404 W · 716 L	-39.4wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed PuckChamp	5c	244.12$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.33	332	3%10 W · 322 L	-11.2wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc622…affdbacked FTS	41c	241.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.68	61	45.9%28 W · 33 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FTS	44c	224.62$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.07	1,901	47.6%905 W · 996 L	+4.6wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xabd9…dc3abacked FTS	41c	221.39$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.36	187	33.2%62 W · 125 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed FTS	47c	220$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.6	285	44.9%128 W · 157 L	-7.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f15…7691backed FTS	39c	217$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.37	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed PuckChamp	61c	215.16$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.56	426	39.4%168 W · 258 L	-39.9wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed PuckChamp	45c	215$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.04	194	40.7%79 W · 115 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked PuckChamp	58c	211.4$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.55	535	38.5%206 W · 329 L	-26.6wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed PuckChamp	65c	186.96$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.59	813	45.1%367 W · 446 L	-26.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-20%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed FTS	32c	175.19$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.64	785	16.6%130 W · 655 L	-135.4wins	-0.17per pick	34cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed PuckChamp	62c	161.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	156	48.7%76 W · 80 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8e…156fbacked FTS	35c	150$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.5	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	+5.6wins	+0.13per pick	39cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8d59…8b19backed FTS	56c	149.08$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.16	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked FTS	36c	142.9$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.64	1,702	41.2%701 W · 1,001 L	-44.0wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FTS	49c	142.88$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.76	935	46.4%434 W · 501 L	-15.7wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ae…84d8backed FTS	20c	138$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.4	80	45%36 W · 44 L	+9.8wins	+0.12per pick	33cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f0c…a691backed PuckChamp	52c	133.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.63	65	47.7%31 W · 34 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec96…f5d7backed FTS	39c	130.89$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.36	372	53%197 W · 175 L	+14.8wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked PuckChamp	69c	114.84$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.24	569	45.2%257 W · 312 L	-18.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed FTS	38c	112.5$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.81	286	50%143 W · 143 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d34…e654backed FTS	28c	110$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.2	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+2.6wins	+0.32per pick	43cpaid	+73.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed PuckChamp	67c	109.9$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.1	589	43%253 W · 336 L	-25.9wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed PuckChamp	16c	103$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.74	107	41.1%44 W · 63 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed PuckChamp	45c	101.29$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	108	33.3%36 W · 72 L	-13.4wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7d03…b8a6backed FTS	39c	100.26$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.26	214	65%139 W · 75 L	+10.6wins	+0.05per pick	60cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked PuckChamp	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	421	46.6%196 W · 225 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed PuckChamp	62c	100$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	195	47.2%92 W · 103 L	-7.3wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed PuckChamp	45c	99.99$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	437	38.4%168 W · 269 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked FTS	29c	91.69$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.32	1,458	48.5%707 W · 751 L	+27.0wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4038…35e4backed FTS	46c	90.39$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.86	48	41.7%20 W · 28 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee83…bc59backed FTS	39c	86$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.51	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x422d…7e39backed FTS	36c	82.23$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.32	124	52.4%65 W · 59 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed PuckChamp	62c	80.36$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	595	56.6%337 W · 258 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a08…ebdcbacked FTS	40c	80$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	86	39.5%34 W · 52 L	-5.4wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x46e4…c6dabacked FTS	30c	79.24$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.62	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b9f…1f47backed FTS	39c	75$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.83	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed PuckChamp	60c	73.22$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.18	416	32.7%136 W · 280 L	-37.8wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6202…c297backed FTS	32c	72.7$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.09	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4339…beeebacked PuckChamp	62c	71.7$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.34	80	55%44 W · 36 L	-4.9wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fdc…9704backed PuckChamp	60c	71.03$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.62	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+3.4wins	+0.12per pick	49cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3d8…c931backed FTS	37c	70.7$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.57	119	46.2%55 W · 64 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3214…cfcbbacked FTS	41c	60$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.4	163	61.3%100 W · 63 L	+8.3wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5d9…b188backed FTS	41c	56.47$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.32	98	55.1%54 W · 44 L	+7.5wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked PuckChamp	62c	50$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	658	63.1%415 W · 243 L	+17.5wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed FTS	42c	42$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.36	246	36.6%90 W · 156 L	-14.4wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed FTS	35c	39.74$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.82	208	20.7%43 W · 165 L	-18.8wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed FTS	36c	38.31$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.52	194	49%95 W · 99 L	+11.8wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb0…807bbacked FTS	37c	37.84$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.84	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.18per pick	48cpaid	+59.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked PuckChamp	67c	35.23$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.46	302	51.7%156 W · 146 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93e9…9010backed FTS	40c	35.06$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.14	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6a0…2212backed PuckChamp	67c	26.81$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	50	48%24 W · 26 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked FTS	44c	25$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.89	86	47.7%41 W · 45 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb49…f70cbacked PuckChamp	65c	23.68$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.39	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	63cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: FTS vs PuckChamp - Game 2 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: FTS vs PuckChamp (BO3) - Asgard Championship PlayoffsFTS won
Dota 2: FTS vs PuckChamp - Game 1 WinnerFTS won
Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: FTS vs PuckChamp - Game 2 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event