Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Tidebound (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7200e1079edf63a1addedf7db69f40894a5714f71f9a6668e3bc4e25d81cad8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Team Tidebound
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed Team Tidebound | 26c | 31,524$8,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,229.25 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Team Falcons | 74c | 13,089$9,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,403.21 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Team Falcons | 78c | 6,434$5,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.43 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Team Tidebound | 1c | 6,263$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Team Falcons | 75c | 5,340$4,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,314.65 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Tidebound | 15c | 3,436$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.69 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Team Falcons | 73c | 2,850$2,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.53 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…e98cbacked Team Tidebound | 3c | 2,717$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Team Falcons | 79c | 2,685$2,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.99 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Team Tidebound | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Team Falcons | 78c | 1,981$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.8 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…b2e0backed Team Falcons | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Team Tidebound | 21c | 1,158$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.15 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Team Tidebound | 3c | 680$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…abccbacked Team Falcons | 77c | 653.28$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.28 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Team Tidebound | 21c | 650.62$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.63 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Team Tidebound | 9c | 633.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 168 | 35.7%60 W · 108 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Tidebound | 23c | 608.7$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Team Tidebound | 23c | 546.76$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.35 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb70c…41d5backed Team Tidebound | 25c | 499.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Team Tidebound | 20c | 451.95$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.95 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Team Falcons | 78c | 410.39$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.39 | 50 | 78%39 W · 11 L | +7.4wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7f…7d7fbacked Team Falcons | 74c | 378.28$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.35 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Team Falcons | 79c | 354.81$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.81 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Team Tidebound | 20c | 344.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | -14.1wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Team Falcons | 74c | 316.07$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Team Falcons | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Tidebound | 12c | 263.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed Team Falcons | 78c | 257.87$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Team Falcons | 79c | 253.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Team Tidebound | 15c | 192.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Team Falcons | 77c | 188.69$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Team Falcons | 79c | 185$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked Team Tidebound | 24c | 167.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…db9dbacked Team Falcons | 76c | 159.72$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 156 | 53.2%83 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee8…dbb1backed Team Tidebound | 13c | 159.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Team Tidebound | 24c | 149.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08e…1d61backed Team Falcons | 78c | 128.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…9ea9backed Team Falcons | 79c | 127.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Tidebound | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a33…28e8backed Team Tidebound | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Team Falcons | 75c | 106.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa17…3aa2backed Team Falcons | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Team Falcons | 77c | 97.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Team Tidebound | 23c | 94.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…b5dabacked Team Falcons | 77c | 90.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb59b…916bbacked Team Tidebound | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Team Falcons | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Team Falcons | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcae1…7dddbacked Team Falcons | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…ca86backed Team Falcons | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…5845backed Team Falcons | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c20…e02dbacked Team Falcons | 74c | 32.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked Team Falcons | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…f296backed Team Falcons | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a73…9daabacked Team Falcons | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7685…482cbacked Team Falcons | 78c | 19.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.