TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,201
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,544

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,201 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes39c1,215$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.291,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes34c631.29$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.2470741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19597152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No58c307.6$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.228,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No61c300$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11755954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes31c289.17$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.516,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes36c239.59$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.134,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No65c238.33$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.274,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e48…902dbacked Yes44c231.78$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4313351.1%68 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No61c202.06$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.173,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes16c191.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.461,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked No59c189.82$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.9221068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No58c188.41$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.014,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc57f…7a32backed Yes45c177$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.97475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+100.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No60c175$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.944,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No62c155.14$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes34c152.47$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.499,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes39c146$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.381,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes8c142.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.221,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes25c141$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.81,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes42c131.9$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.446743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No58c112.1$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes27c103.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4457948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes34c103$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes43c101.08$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7549547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes42c100.74$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9368335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4942643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4424732%79 W · 168 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3442547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes43c99.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4356543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x63a1…0212backed No59c99.88$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5125258.7%148 W · 104 L-0.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No59c97.31$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.361,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes46c87.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…3f63backed Yes36c82.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9913839.1%54 W · 84 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No57c82.08$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.943,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No57c82$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.243,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No60c81$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.42,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No60c80$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.211,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes40c75.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.51,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed Yes29c75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7533350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes39c74.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1775546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No57c72.56$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.258152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes23c69.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c66.04$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.835,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes40c62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.82,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.985,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No61c56.95$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3653855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No61c52$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.281,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed No60c51$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.416724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No57c50.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.511,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.527248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.51,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x89cc…9e01backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.59752.6%51 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2115950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes37c47.03$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.41,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes41c46.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.15,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe89e…7219backed No60c44.15$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.667876.9%60 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No62c44$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.591,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd46…e514backed No60c42.16$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.922532%8 W · 17 L-5.7wins-0.23per pick55cpaid-43.2%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes39c41.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.42,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4df…e6cfbacked No76c41.39$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9413862.3%86 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No62c40.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3226458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No57c39.61$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.032,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39f3…74c9backed Yes37c38.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.271450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b09…68babacked Yes43c37.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes40c37.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.987,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No63c36.6$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.395,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…68d3backed No61c34.09$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.366053.3%32 W · 28 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.151,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd489…7f08backed No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69566.3%63 W · 32 L-9.2wins-0.10per pick76cpaid-16.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No64c29.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6586949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed Yes41c28.92$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.861,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No63c28.28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.362,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd425…603ebacked No75c26.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.629272.8%67 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No70c26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.849551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2af3…bcb4backed No63c25.81$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.554658.7%27 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x329c…3667backed No58c25.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7212334.1%42 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No60c24.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.852,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No61c23.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.261,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed No73c20.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4622550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.73,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5046…a7e5backed No71c19.73$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.65850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf51f…24e8backed No63c19.56$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.153250%16 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-17.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No77c18.31$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2371464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9db6…e1f8backed No61c16.64$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4911157.7%64 W · 47 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1fa…9611backed No64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6315555.5%86 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.