TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,984
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,052

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,984 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked No57c1,857$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.051,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes36c1,574$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.891,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes48c682.23$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.724,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No48c531.12$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.445162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No45c497.11$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.938,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes49c419$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.771,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes41c367.2$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.2710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No64c350$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.9577555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes43c307.49$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.795,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No64c300$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19263255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c292.88$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.434,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes56c288.9$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.056,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes43c254$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.443,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes47c248.25$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.911,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes46c238.65$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1285,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No60c228.15$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.954,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No50c199.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.562,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed No8c197.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4161929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No34c175.63$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.736,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes43c172.47$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.312,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No62c170.1$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.762,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes31c167.74$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.741,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes67c167.47$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5665749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b33…9f80backed No60c157.81$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.734141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed No8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No59c148.73$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.514,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes43c145$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.051,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No27c139.76$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.64,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No60c134.7$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.189,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes39c130.81$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.611,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No38c122.08$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.827,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No58c115.57$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes43c113.47$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.781,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes43c106.07$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4646743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes40c104.75$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.821,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No58c101.91$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.911,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes39c100.7$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.9968335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5675…f6a6backed No60c100.41$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.258458.3%49 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.561760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0424732%79 W · 168 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.52835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1781848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes44c98.54$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.1849547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No61c95.22$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1987629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes39c93.71$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.877,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No55c85$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.752,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes58c78.45$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6199949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No58c76.29$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.251,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes35c75$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7572837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed Yes42c75$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.533350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes43c70$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0649551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2851…d63cbacked No61c66.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.863444.1%15 W · 19 L-5.5wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-32.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes71c65.44$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7937056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes51c64.95$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9170741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes39c62.87$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4657948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked Yes40c61$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5513845.7%63 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec3d…0a55backed Yes43c58.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1414434%49 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No64c57.75$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.23,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No51c56.96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7853855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed No26c55.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3916832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes36c55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1525947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes44c55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.722,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes35c54.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.742,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No20c53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.845,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No43c52$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.361,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No63c50.03$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.521,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.515950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes76c48.5$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8525549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4095…24e2backed No58c46.81$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.151060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed Yes39c44.18$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.771,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes43c43.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8458152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes65c41.55$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.612030%6 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3be5…bc8bbacked Yes71c41$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.85570.9%39 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b4f…1f77backed Yes74c40.65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.65887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick71cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes44c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.435137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes43c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.810042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No63c38.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.981,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b09…68babacked Yes43c37.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.472646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe89e…7219backed No62c37.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.337876.9%60 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No63c37.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.790555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad43…196bbacked Yes43c37.21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.211070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No52c36.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.925,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…68d3backed No58c35.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.736053.3%32 W · 28 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No44c34.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No59c33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4764167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff18…a5fbbacked No63c32.63$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.587835.9%28 W · 50 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes77c32.04$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2920662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.252,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.864859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4df…e6cfbacked No38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.413862.3%86 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes52c28.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.520358.6%119 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x047b…83b1backed Yes44c27.87$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7413452.2%70 W · 64 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes43c27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3933139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ca…59eebacked Yes42c27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.545729.8%17 W · 40 L-11.6wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-42.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x329c…3667backed No57c26.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9912334.1%42 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9db6…e1f8backed No62c25.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7811157.7%64 W · 47 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes42c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6316453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes62c24.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3232352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa922…9a52backed Yes64c24.34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.717452.7%39 W · 35 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.