Fifa International · resolved market
Will Hungary vs. Greece end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa784aac4b24c29210e0b6a2a6f8052b8f1e3e7751ef6c126054299aec055940e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 30c | 28,502$8,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,578.21 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 78c | 8,836$6,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,973.85 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4820…c613backed No | 2c | 5,270$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 56c | 4,617$2,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,052.74 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 56c | 4,234$2,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,867.18 | 293 | 43%126 W · 167 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Yes | 59c | 1,875$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.86 | 208 | 56.7%118 W · 90 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Yes | 29c | 1,808$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.68 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 72c | 1,734$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.52 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 75c | 1,578$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.72 | 740 | 34.1%252 W · 488 L | -36.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 71c | 750.36$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.76 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Yes | 47c | 643.02$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.8 | 414 | 51.4%213 W · 201 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 31c | 598.39$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.19 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea95…4730backed Yes | 68c | 595.84$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Yes | 47c | 531.91$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.91 | 237 | 49.8%118 W · 119 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…8ba9backed No | 35c | 530.91$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.82 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 19c | 521.87$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 420 | 43.1%181 W · 239 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 77c | 495.38$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 28c | 432.71$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.01 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 71c | 423.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.43 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 47c | 421.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.32 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked No | 12c | 384$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 32c | 360.66$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.41 | 219 | 53.4%117 W · 102 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…1d7bbacked Yes | 29c | 359.14$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 11c | 285.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 237 | 38.8%92 W · 145 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0efb…016cbacked No | 33c | 266.34$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Yes | 30c | 260$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9f…2eb8backed No | 7c | 235.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 77c | 229.31$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 450 | 39.6%178 W · 272 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 48c | 206.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.51 | 287 | 54.7%157 W · 130 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 28c | 192.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.65 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39ee…4ad6backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 16c | 186.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 28c | 185.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.63 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x603a…b53abacked Yes | 46c | 176.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 28c | 158$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.13 | 550 | 45.1%248 W · 302 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 150.75$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.54 | 371 | 44.5%165 W · 206 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4e…4f43backed Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Yes | 48c | 136.81$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.14 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.33per pick | 55cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x939f…1ca5backed No | 72c | 131.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked No | 10c | 128$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…9200backed Yes | 79c | 127.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 24c | 124.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 161 | 16.8%27 W · 134 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 28c | 123.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6d…6b36backed Yes | 40c | 119.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…a103backed Yes | 44c | 114.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 60c | 111.43$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…b868backed No | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 38c | 107.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 159 | 45.3%72 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 71c | 99.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 28c | 97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 71c | 95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 1,945 | 42.7%831 W · 1,114 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 53c | 93.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 277 | 45.1%125 W · 152 L | -19.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 26c | 92.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 57c | 91.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0632…d1b7backed Yes | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Yes | 21c | 82.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3435…a117backed Yes | 29c | 65.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f9…ae42backed Yes | 66c | 65.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…269dbacked No | 29c | 65.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Yes | 61c | 61.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…b063backed Yes | 29c | 61.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 71c | 55.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 908 | 40.9%371 W · 537 L | -64.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 20c | 50.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…7bc9backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8708…b228backed Yes | 77c | 47.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 80c | 41.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 163 | 41.1%67 W · 96 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfedc…61d1backed No | 71c | 41.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf0…82b4backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…a32ebacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5367…4904backed Yes | 38c | 37.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe36…9413backed No | 51c | 36.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed No | 52c | 31.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 59 | 72.9%43 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa13f…0730backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9d…5483backed No | 51c | 24.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6da…0afabacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hungary vs. Greece end in a draw?this page
- Will Greece win on 2026-03-31?No won
- Will Hungary win on 2026-03-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.