Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa78b7a3926dc7a6eb78240fed855cd691952b4ba6f0cfa426e94b27c859cc6a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5186…ea4dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,068$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 686.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes | 2c | 637.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 27c | 457.14$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.17 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…ae43backed Yes | 20c | 449.55$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 443.58$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.77 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 410.83$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 17c | 320.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 27c | 310.06$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 31c | 309.83$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 277.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 29c | 223.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdc…269cbacked Yes | 12c | 217.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 19c | 216.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 204.04$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 73c | 192.23$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 14c | 178.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 28c | 167.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 144.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 143.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 142.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x247f…1aa9backed Yes | 31c | 134.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 127.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 75c | 126.52$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57e…c931backed Yes | 14c | 125.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 31c | 121.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 69c | 116.74$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2258…6e16backed Yes | 22c | 115.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 107.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 20c | 103.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…f6b9backed Yes | 20c | 100.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 21c | 97.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 29c | 95.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 28c | 95.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 71c | 86.42$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 71c | 83.84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 83.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 79.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 28c | 75.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 73.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da0…c9e1backed No | 69c | 70.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x003a…485cbacked Yes | 32c | 69.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 18c | 66.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 28c | 65.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 23c | 64.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 29c | 61.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 27c | 61.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…4020backed Yes | 28c | 56.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 67c | 56.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 28c | 55.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…a71ebacked Yes | 33c | 55.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…86f4backed Yes | 28c | 54.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 30c | 49.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 72c | 49.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3361…e18ebacked Yes | 31c | 48.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 29c | 48.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…0e58backed Yes | 35c | 47.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 70c | 46.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 71c | 45.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 32c | 45.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe960…734ebacked Yes | 32c | 37.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes | 28c | 36.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…f09bbacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 70c | 35.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 70c | 33.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 30c | 33.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 76c | 32.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 80c | 31.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 70c | 30.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 69c | 29.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 68c | 28.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 74c | 27.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 75c | 25.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…4636backed No | 72c | 21.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…57d6backed No | 72c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 19.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 75c | 19.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…b6aabacked No | 68c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 72c | 18.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 70c | 17.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b3…532cbacked No | 69c | 16.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 78c | 16.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 14.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 75c | 13.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.