TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,511
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,724

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,511 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5186…ea4dbacked Yes1c1,125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes1c1,068$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.569122%20 W · 71 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes4c686.59$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.332,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes2c637.09$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.76610.6%7 W · 59 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-66.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes27c457.14$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1756131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce04…ae43backed Yes20c449.55$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.09825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-39.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes29c443.58$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.774,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No76c410.83$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.4212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes17c320.81$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.151,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfba1…2769backed Yes27c310.06$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2910640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes31c309.83$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.749547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes12c300$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3543238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes23c277.96$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.964,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes29c223.67$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.371,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfdc…269cbacked Yes12c217.39$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.09714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-63.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc80…56a7backed Yes19c216.05$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5316412.2%20 W · 144 L-0.5wins0.00per pick12cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No69c204.04$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.238,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No73c192.23$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.241,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes14c178.61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9165749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes28c167.93$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.721,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes12c144.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.942,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes24c143.9$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.273,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c142.84$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x247f…1aa9backed Yes31c134.65$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.51119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick33cpaid-69.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes10c127.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.262,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb55c…04eabacked No75c126.52$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0620172.6%146 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf57e…c931backed Yes14c125.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-39.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked Yes31c121.12$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5342469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed No69c116.74$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9546743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2258…6e16backed Yes22c115.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8330%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes20c107.54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.289,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes20c103.49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.581,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26dd…f6b9backed Yes20c100.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.241233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74b7…14e9backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes21c97.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.495834.5%20 W · 38 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes17c97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes29c95.72$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.036643.9%29 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes28c95.6$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7768335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No71c86.42$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0127756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No71c83.84$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3570770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No75c83.01$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.944,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes29c79.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.21,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes28c75.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.759125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c73.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.477,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1da0…c9e1backed No69c70.09$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.63683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick67cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes26c70$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.439541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x003a…485cbacked Yes32c69.32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.161735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes18c66.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.886421.9%14 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes28c65.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.071,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes23c64.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0819123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes29c61.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8273927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes27c61.05$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.261,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc046…4020backed Yes28c56.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed No67c56.05$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2210163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes28c55.76$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5617838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeba4…a71ebacked Yes33c55.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.67175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-80.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2e5…86f4backed Yes28c54.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.34362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x90b7…148cbacked Yes28c53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.849331.2%29 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e08…59d2backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105644.6%25 W · 31 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1414637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes30c49.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0211436%41 W · 73 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No72c49.3$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.891444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3361…e18ebacked Yes31c48.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.072360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+23.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes29c48.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9742544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x977b…0e58backed Yes35c47.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.752352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No70c46.49$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8828954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No71c45.49$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1920353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes32c45.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7219449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe960…734ebacked Yes32c37.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.93728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-45.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes28c36.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.174429.5%13 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7124…f09bbacked Yes28c36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x407e…5bf0backed No70c35.18$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.499361.3%57 W · 36 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7396…b89cbacked No70c33.7$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1910780.4%86 W · 21 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes30c33.61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2421440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No76c32.02$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6111977.3%92 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x879e…e339backed No80c31.69$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3417555.4%97 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed No70c30.86$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2640739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No69c29.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.071,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No68c28.63$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.191,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb34d…e1bdbacked No74c27.64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.088164.2%52 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x072f…86b1backed No75c25.65$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4111151.4%57 W · 54 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x069e…4636backed No72c21.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.043447.1%16 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1793…57d6backed No72c20.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.75560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No70c19.94$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.912,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No75c19.89$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.891,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59ee…b6aabacked No68c19.36$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.21435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.25per pick61cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xce9a…8ea6backed No72c18.9$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2918878.2%147 W · 41 L+19.4wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No70c17.32$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.281756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2b3…532cbacked No69c16.81$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.182045%9 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.17per pick62cpaid-27.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb692…7c83backed No78c16.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.511770.9%83 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No72c14.64$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.151,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a62…ace3backed No74c14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.644961.2%30 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked No75c13.34$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.3360851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.