Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59515c74a1c91e0a916039b30ad3dba5c3ce0e81519072e010534edf639dca07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 0c | 4,376$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 7c | 1,310$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…d158backed Yes | 3c | 1,015$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 903.65$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.47 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 19c | 789.45$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 17c | 690.24$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.52 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 12c | 598.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 584.58$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 73c | 564.29$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.98 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 11c | 551.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 25c | 494.19$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.93 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 450.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 10c | 422.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 402.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 68c | 384$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.88 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 25c | 381.53$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 11c | 381.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 12c | 340.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 11c | 312.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Yes | 32c | 291.34$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 275.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 256.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 38c | 245.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 18c | 240$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 236.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x247f…1aa9backed Yes | 13c | 218.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed Yes | 17c | 213.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 208.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…72f8backed Yes | 16c | 196.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…d9a3backed Yes | 17c | 180.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 27c | 166.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 29c | 163.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 24c | 157.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 39c | 152.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 150.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 25c | 147.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…ae43backed Yes | 16c | 127.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 118.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 116.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 13c | 112.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 25c | 111.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 40c | 104.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 28c | 100.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 24c | 100.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 28c | 98.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 20c | 97.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 74c | 97.4$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2258…6e16backed Yes | 48c | 94.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 77c | 85.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 31c | 80.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 78.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 18c | 72.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 18c | 72.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 15c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 15c | 69.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes | 30c | 67.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x003a…485cbacked Yes | 23c | 66.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 23c | 66.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…eba3backed Yes | 20c | 65.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaa…2b29backed Yes | 16c | 64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 78c | 59.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 22c | 55.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…4a36backed No | 69c | 54.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 20c | 54.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f0…f424backed Yes | 27c | 51.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1da0…c9e1backed No | 78c | 47.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 78c | 46.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e3…0ed9backed Yes | 24c | 46.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…8861backed No | 78c | 41.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 80c | 36.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 64c | 31.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…372abacked No | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 78c | 29.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 29.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 38c | 27.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 25.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 77c | 20.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…67b0backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf57e…c931backed Yes | 53c | 19.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 66c | 18.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…0859backed No | 79c | 18.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.