Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7b1737b75202e1f859ed5261af9e97297fb8394e929c15ec4ad6fff87a05d2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x923c…fa1dbacked No | 1c | 1,910$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 1,300$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 60c | 791.5$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.54 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 727.31$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.08 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 667.55$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.43 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 24c | 657.81$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.59 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 53c | 545.41$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.63 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 20c | 418.3$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.23 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 407.95$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 6c | 392.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 374.54$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 31c | 311.25$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.7 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57e…c931backed Yes | 55c | 304.17$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 42c | 301.08$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.85 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 68c | 300.96$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x003a…485cbacked Yes | 29c | 277.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.34 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 72c | 258.55$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.18 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Yes | 37c | 254.54$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.86 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 25c | 225.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.32 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 37c | 213.56$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.33 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 209.16$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 65c | 199.46$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.66 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 36c | 175.06$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac69…7649backed Yes | 80c | 170$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…92c3backed Yes | 40c | 167.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.53 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 55c | 163.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.92 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 162.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 75c | 151.85$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.33 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 148.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 58c | 147.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 55c | 134.55$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 54c | 132.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 127$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 55c | 124.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 79c | 111.04$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.14 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadf5…20f8backed No | 11c | 109.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 37c | 109.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 47c | 104.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 34c | 104.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 54c | 98.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 29c | 98.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 30c | 98.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.63 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes | 39c | 96.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 73c | 93.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 74c | 92.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 83.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 47c | 80.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd44…28ccbacked Yes | 60c | 80.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 79.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 25c | 78.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 65c | 77.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f71…79a6backed No | 45c | 75.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes | 34c | 73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 41c | 72.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f0…f424backed Yes | 41c | 71.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x247f…1aa9backed Yes | 30c | 70.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 47c | 70.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb345…23d5backed No | 21c | 69.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 75c | 69.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 34c | 69.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 52c | 67.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 62c | 66.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 25c | 65.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 41c | 64.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4953…632abacked No | 53c | 61.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 64c | 57.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 77c | 57.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 58c | 57.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 21c | 56.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 74c | 56.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1e…8127backed No | 33c | 54.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 63c | 53.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 25c | 53.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 65c | 52.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 39c | 52.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 46c | 51.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 72c | 50.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…86f4backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 37c | 49.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked Yes | 49c | 49.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3361…e18ebacked Yes | 51c | 48.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes | 27c | 48.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 26c | 48.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 79c | 46.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 67c | 46.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 46.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 75c | 45.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 38c | 42.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.