MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7baa905b6c5a9144127b86bdb9deab6733885561f088891ef83dae190119f0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 884.15$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.95 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 718$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.29 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 475.13$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.14 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 60c | 331.66$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.19 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 235.49$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.85 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 177.78$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 102.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 102.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 101.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 98.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 83.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 81.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 318 | 49.7%158 W · 160 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 76.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 58.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 54.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Washington Nationals | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 46.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 39.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Washington Nationals | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 33.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 21.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.