MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bd0324657f8408983d3e509ee3c0e1968b413f5f60ab50dcd15aca1913fc7c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 14,630$5,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,413.01 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 7,774$2,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,487.64 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 7,297$4,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,699.99 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 4,000$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 1,570$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.9 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 1,500$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 1,172$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.04 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 965.63$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.66 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 76c | 567.51$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 399$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.65 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Philadelphia Phillies | 25c | 337.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8d…4f5cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 244.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 195.63$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 29c | 121.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 105.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 105$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 102.38$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 77.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals | 76c | 77.54$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…5a5cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 20c | 53.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6a…3267backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 71c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.