MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bf3b075321eefc828b22268a6a628b45de011111647be359c5e7c7c8b0dd05b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56e2…4b88backed Under | 50c | 50,000$25,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 50c | 20,177$10,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,081.62 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 50c | 9,903$4,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,950 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 5,913$2,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,929.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…2f5ebacked Over | 50c | 3,560$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.1 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 50c | 1,962$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.96 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 50c | 1,961$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.68 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f3…bf14backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 50c | 981.1$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.55 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 50c | 980.68$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.34 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 50c | 980.39$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.2 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 37c | 844.4$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.43 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 51c | 744.62$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.86 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 50c | 594$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 50c | 588.48$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.24 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 582$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.18 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…44fdbacked Over | 50c | 579.72$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.86 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 41c | 554.82$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.16 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 546.18$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.09 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 50c | 399$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Over | 50c | 247.5$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 50c | 214.92$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 50c | 199.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 40c | 181.2$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 171.7$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 58c | 166.4$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 56c | 116.75$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…ffcabacked Under | 65c | 104.62$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 103.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…6ee5backed Over | 50c | 101.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 50c | 100.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 99.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Over | 50c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 49c | 97.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 69c | 94.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 50c | 82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 50c | 82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Over | 50c | 79.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 51c | 78.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 65c | 75.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 51c | 70.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Over | 49c | 70.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 49c | 67.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Over | 55c | 66.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 49c | 60.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Over | 49c | 52.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Over | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 50c | 49.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Under | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 49c | 37.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 51c | 35.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982c…0d6ebacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Over | 50c | 29.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…f6b5backed Over | 50c | 25.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4180…fb3cbacked Over | 50c | 25.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 49cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Over | 50c | 25.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 21.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfd…a4d5backed Over | 66c | 18.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccc…db95backed Over | 63c | 17.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9d…5176backed Over | 66c | 16.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.