MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccc8ee4e24a3f90758be07bb5f72543cbd693fe753628c2bb2499fe4bfb003a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f0c…7ca5backed Under | 69c | 29,159$20,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,039.57 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -7.9wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 31c | 22,645$7,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,020.7 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 34c | 6,976$2,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,354.85 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Over | 61c | 2,728$1,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,664.08 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 58c | 1,329$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.82 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 46c | 1,000$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.3 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 45c | 979.51$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.73 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 487.22$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 39c | 420$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 58c | 399$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.42 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 39c | 169$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.09 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 54c | 144.86$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 33c | 129$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 39c | 118.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 55c | 102.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 40c | 83.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 34c | 74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 35c | 66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Over | 59c | 64.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 64c | 49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Over | 53c | 47.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 75c | 44.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd3…1e24backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -6.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 65c | 18.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 62c | 16.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.