WNBA · resolved market
Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 173.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8004ac8d0989d1d82178b931a691db4d77633906c3ab87d8cc68eed5b6dff58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6bf…8380backed Under | 50c | 10,170$5,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,055.66 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab1…1975backed Over | 49c | 7,635$3,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,777.42 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under | 51c | 7,372$3,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,627.97 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Over | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 5,890$2,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,865.93 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 2,227$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.38 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Under | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd747…076cbacked Under | 52c | 1,820$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 48c | 1,784$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.41 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 1,714$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.18 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Under | 50c | 1,394$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.22 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 49c | 1,314$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.2 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 45c | 1,127$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.56 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 51c | 492.87$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.31 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dae…72febacked Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 260.63$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.27 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 45c | 258.6$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.8 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 227.63$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.54 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b22…9431backed Over | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 51c | 189.71$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.96 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Under | 51c | 186.45$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 55c | 138.14$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Under | 52c | 116.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 54c | 110.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 50c | 105.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 54c | 105.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 154 | 53.2%82 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Under | 49c | 104.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 54c | 90.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 192 | 57.3%110 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 55c | 88.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 51c | 76.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Over | 56c | 72.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0536…c50bbacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 49c | 41.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 54c | 33.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb5…3444backed Under | 51c | 30.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Over | 56c | 21.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…fc7cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Over | 55c | 18.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 173.5this page
- Alyssa Thomas: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut SunConnecticut Sun won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 172.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 174.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5)Connecticut Sun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.