WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x420bc2907a2ea1948592dd8d2c629657eeedbd1046a3c5cc3e0c86fc7aedec48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Connecticut Sunof Phoenix Mercury, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1681…5032backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 8,046$4,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,922.91 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 4,110$2,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,012.99 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 3,443$1,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594.85 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 2,514$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.85 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 2,369$1,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Connecticut Sun | 55c | 2,341$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.96 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 2,285$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.68 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…4b0dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 2,114$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 2,098$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Connecticut Sun | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Connecticut Sun | 60c | 1,916$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.39 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b17…d36dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 1,848$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -49%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 1,756$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.49 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcf…c767backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 1,464$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.42 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 1,250$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.13 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 1,001$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.58 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…a55abacked Phoenix Mercury | 30c | 999.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 26c | 977.33$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.15 | 367 | 50.7%186 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 892.18$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.39 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 863.87$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.1 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Connecticut Sun | 55c | 856$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.27 | 269 | 53.2%143 W · 126 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked Connecticut Sun | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 570.83$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.32 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 357$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.36 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…beeebacked Phoenix Mercury | 62c | 313.33$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 196$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 192.5$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.87 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Connecticut Sun | 53c | 188.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 169.49$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 159$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 286 | 47.9%137 W · 149 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Phoenix Mercury | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 133$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 121$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +7.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…0904backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Connecticut Sun | 50c | 106.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Connecticut Sun | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 98.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 154 | 53.2%82 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d7…f197backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732d…8b00backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 91.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 91.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 78.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 73.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 72.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Connecticut Sun | 58c | 69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 65.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Connecticut Sun | 58c | 60.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 59.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 58.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf8…bf62backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 54.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Connecticut Sun | 58c | 54.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…362ebacked Connecticut Sun | 52c | 46.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 34.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Connecticut Sun | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 24.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Connecticut Sun | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6c…f3eabacked Connecticut Sun | 50c | 22.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…900ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Connecticut Sun | 51c | 19.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Connecticut Sun | 66c | 17.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5)this page
- Alyssa Thomas: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut SunConnecticut Sun won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 172.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 173.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 174.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)Connecticut Sun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.