WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddebeabe5e4eca84700c2377b00e16ce85e591b45adf9ac531bdea36e9317db9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Connecticut Sunof Phoenix Mercury, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Connecticut Sun | 56c | 1,605$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.68 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 1,526$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.39 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 1,023$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.4 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…a55abacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 799.99$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 699.96$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.98 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Connecticut Sun | 58c | 524.28$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.65 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Connecticut Sun | 41c | 501.16$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.92 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 417.69$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.54 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Connecticut Sun | 46c | 346.85$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.14 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Connecticut Sun | 37c | 311.16$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.67 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 243.17$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.99 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Connecticut Sun | 53c | 168.37$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Connecticut Sun | 41c | 125.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Connecticut Sun | 44c | 122.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 121.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 115.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Connecticut Sun | 43c | 102.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Connecticut Sun | 46c | 95.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Connecticut Sun | 65c | 74.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Connecticut Sun | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Connecticut Sun | 61c | 68.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Phoenix Mercury | 57c | 65.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 65.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 154 | 53.2%82 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Connecticut Sun | 56c | 63.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 203 | 40.9%83 W · 120 L | -16.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Connecticut Sun | 57c | 52.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 286 | 47.9%137 W · 149 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Connecticut Sun | 55c | 50.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Connecticut Sun | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Connecticut Sun | 46c | 37.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Phoenix Mercury | 33c | 35.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 29.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Connecticut Sun | 75c | 28.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Phoenix Mercury | 58c | 27.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 192 | 57.3%110 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Phoenix Mercury | 58c | 23.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)this page
- Alyssa Thomas: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut SunConnecticut Sun won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 172.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 173.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 174.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5)Connecticut Sun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.