WNBA · resolved market

Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0205db38d29d48f1a4e8530dfe35ad46f6a7a6877e527375163bc835f93af977

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Connecticut Sunof Phoenix Mercury, Connecticut Sun
Resolved: Aug 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $42,482
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $42,567

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,482 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in WNBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbf08…907ebacked Connecticut Sun	52c	10,439$5,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,039.14	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed Connecticut Sun	50c	7,987$4,033 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,953.76	84	47.6%40 W · 44 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Connecticut Sun	43c	4,585$1,972 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,613.45	506	46.8%237 W · 269 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury	54c	4,237$2,282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,281.75	1,765	51.7%912 W · 853 L	+53.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Phoenix Mercury	48c	3,186$1,528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,527.81	386	50.3%194 W · 192 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Phoenix Mercury	51c	2,428$1,238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,238.45	137	46%63 W · 74 L	-6.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-11%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Phoenix Mercury	50c	2,183$1,091 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,091.49	130	48.5%63 W · 67 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Phoenix Mercury	49c	2,070$1,014 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,013.94	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Connecticut Sun	49c	2,000$980 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,020	114	57.9%66 W · 48 L	+9.4wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4c9…617dbacked Phoenix Mercury	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	75	49.3%37 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabe6…4797backed Phoenix Mercury	50c	1,500$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-3.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-35%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Phoenix Mercury	51c	1,318$670 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$669.51	325	40.3%131 W · 194 L	-17.6wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa406…bd18backed Phoenix Mercury	54c	1,132$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610.29	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury	49c	1,098$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.52	1,611	50.2%809 W · 802 L	+37.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Phoenix Mercury	48c	1,082$519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$519.22	462	47%217 W · 245 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Connecticut Sun	48c	851.97$409 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$443.02	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0894…d819backed Phoenix Mercury	55c	736.15$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.88	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.25per pick	53cpaid	-48%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4011…ced5backed Phoenix Mercury	49c	715.41$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.55	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Phoenix Mercury	52c	679.5$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.34	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Phoenix Mercury	58c	534.67$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.72	371	41.2%153 W · 218 L	-13.3wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed Phoenix Mercury	48c	520$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.6	157	46.5%73 W · 84 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Phoenix Mercury	51c	500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	851	58.4%497 W · 354 L	+70.2wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Connecticut Sun	62c	443.84$273 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.55	367	50.7%186 W · 181 L	+15.2wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Phoenix Mercury	48c	346.63$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.27	893	49.4%441 W · 452 L	+5.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Phoenix Mercury	53c	333.34$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.67	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-2.7wins	-0.18per pick	52cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Phoenix Mercury	53c	331.79$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.68	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-2.4wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Connecticut Sun	46c	323.91$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.91	285	58.6%167 W · 118 L	+20.0wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1682…26cabacked Connecticut Sun	49c	300$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Connecticut Sun	50c	284.02$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.01	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4cf…0e95backed Connecticut Sun	52c	270$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.6	55	54.5%30 W · 25 L	+4.9wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Connecticut Sun	46c	267.99$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.94	179	46.9%84 W · 95 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Phoenix Mercury	51c	263.1$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.09	143	45.5%65 W · 78 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Phoenix Mercury	47c	250$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.5	77	32.5%25 W · 52 L	-9.3wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcbf8…bf62backed Phoenix Mercury	50c	225$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.5	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6df…dda7backed Connecticut Sun	50c	225$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.5	51	54.9%28 W · 23 L	+3.6wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Phoenix Mercury	49c	221.12$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.24	837	48.1%403 W · 434 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe73…7d93backed Phoenix Mercury	51c	217.65$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	52	42.3%22 W · 30 L	-4.7wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3947…63a5backed Phoenix Mercury	50c	205.12$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.56	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Connecticut Sun	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	378	50%189 W · 189 L	+9.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Phoenix Mercury	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	120	45%54 W · 66 L	-9.4wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-15%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Connecticut Sun	44c	180.87$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.29	203	40.9%83 W · 120 L	-16.6wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Connecticut Sun	50c	179.81$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.46	995	48.1%479 W · 516 L	+2.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Phoenix Mercury	41c	164$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.24	286	47.9%137 W · 149 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Phoenix Mercury	54c	158.85$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.78	344	48%165 W · 179 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Phoenix Mercury	49c	156$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.44	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+26%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Phoenix Mercury	47c	150$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.5	399	47.1%188 W · 211 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…c7a2backed Connecticut Sun	47c	148.94$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.94	58	53.4%31 W · 27 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Connecticut Sun	50c	114.48$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.24	85	49.4%42 W · 43 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Phoenix Mercury	49c	97.15$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.6	922	48.8%450 W · 472 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56b4…11adbacked Connecticut Sun	49c	94$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.99	30	40%12 W · 18 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Connecticut Sun	47c	93.63$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.62	712	45.4%323 W · 389 L	-19.6wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d64…ba4abacked Phoenix Mercury	48c	92$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.16	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-3.9wins	-0.23per pick	40cpaid	-63%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked Connecticut Sun	46c	90.31$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.67	80	45%36 W · 44 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Phoenix Mercury	50c	79.48$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.74	123	59.3%73 W · 50 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Phoenix Mercury	54c	78.96$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.64	327	50.2%164 W · 163 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Connecticut Sun	38c	78.72$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.04	108	53.7%58 W · 50 L	+9.2wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Phoenix Mercury	60c	72.5$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	246	56.5%139 W · 107 L	+6.6wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed Connecticut Sun	47c	68.99$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.69	58	39.7%23 W · 35 L	-5.2wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Connecticut Sun	47c	67.08$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.55	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Connecticut Sun	45c	59.61$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.56	93	45.2%42 W · 51 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Phoenix Mercury	64c	56.74$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.55	154	53.2%82 W · 72 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Phoenix Mercury	50c	51.28$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.64	206	42.7%88 W · 118 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	+4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Phoenix Mercury	54c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ff…8a60backed Connecticut Sun	49c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+3.5wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Phoenix Mercury	53c	49.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	615	47%289 W · 326 L	-19.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Phoenix Mercury	50c	47.44$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.72	260	54.6%142 W · 118 L	+9.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Phoenix Mercury	49c	45.88$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.48	386	45.9%177 W · 209 L	-15.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x360a…1098backed Connecticut Sun	44c	40.79$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.84	61	55.7%34 W · 27 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d3…5639backed Phoenix Mercury	50c	35.7$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.85	63	50.8%32 W · 31 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Connecticut Sun	41c	35.51$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.98	349	18.3%64 W · 285 L	-49.5wins	-0.14per pick	33cpaid	-58.1%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Phoenix Mercury	51c	34.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	192	57.3%110 W · 82 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ebe…6dccbacked Phoenix Mercury	56c	32.14$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe00b…256fbacked Phoenix Mercury	53c	32.08$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf51…7cccbacked Phoenix Mercury	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe99…506bbacked Connecticut Sun	52c	28.85$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	52	38.5%20 W · 32 L	-6.0wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c96…0a39backed Connecticut Sun	52c	28.85$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba00…527bbacked Connecticut Sun	50c	28.18$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.09	51	68.6%35 W · 16 L	+7.7wins	+0.15per pick	54cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Connecticut Sun	45c	26.38$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.38	46	60.9%28 W · 18 L	+4.6wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x460c…b5b5backed Phoenix Mercury	52c	24.24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.56	19	68.4%13 W · 6 L	+1.9wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Connecticut Sun	47c	21.75$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.53	749	42.3%317 W · 432 L	-21.7wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5630…7574backed Phoenix Mercury	54c	21.22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.38	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.26per pick	54cpaid	-53%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2bb4…4551backed Phoenix Mercury	50c	20.32$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.16	81	49.4%40 W · 41 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e38…f1dfbacked Phoenix Mercury	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Phoenix Mercury	55c	19.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.99	270	49.6%134 W · 136 L	-5.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeef…4b1fbacked Phoenix Mercury	61c	16.72$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-4.3wins	-0.13per pick	58cpaid	-21%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)this page
Alyssa Thomas: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut SunConnecticut Sun won
Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 172.5Under won
Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 173.5Under won
Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 174.5Under won
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Connecticut Sun won
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5)Connecticut Sun won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event