WNBA · resolved market
Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 174.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0e0c177e541cb5a98d04fd2edf15ef4ab56dc8aff853e933778741d2a7032a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Over | 51c | 76,563$38,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,876.72 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 55,621$27,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,365.2 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under | 50c | 12,000$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,000 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 48c | 11,772$5,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,627.76 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 8,569$4,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,223.78 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…5032backed Under | 51c | 7,767$3,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,810.82 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Over | 48c | 6,477$3,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,109 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcf…c767backed Under | 52c | 5,135$2,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,483.77 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 3,969$2,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,907.47 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…5a1cbacked Under | 52c | 2,826$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.93 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Over | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 50c | 2,017$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.87 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 50c | 1,806$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.18 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 49c | 1,649$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.34 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Under | 52c | 1,619$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.34 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 50c | 1,166$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.56 | 164 | 50%82 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…5a83backed Under | 52c | 803.85$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.85 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…5122backed Under | 51c | 735.29$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.29 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 48c | 660.56$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.51 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae2…d963backed Over | 51c | 592.25$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa871…3932backed Under | 54c | 509.54$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.39 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 49c | 450$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 52c | 377.83$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.44 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd238…ee03backed Over | 49c | 368.53$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.58 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 48c | 274.61$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.81 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 50c | 256$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe73…7d93backed Under | 54c | 205.56$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.56 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…4fadbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 198.09$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.78 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…15cdbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc91…fcabbacked Under | 49c | 184.97$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.09 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 49c | 177.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.05 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 48c | 175.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.48 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedde…5db2backed Under | 54c | 164.28$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 49c | 153.86$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 46c | 151.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.71 | 286 | 47.9%137 W · 149 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Over | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 49c | 138.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.64 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…0904backed Over | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b5…2a6cbacked Over | 46c | 129.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3c…9320backed Over | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Over | 49c | 100.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4692…0feebacked Over | 58c | 98.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6509…2dc5backed Under | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 46c | 97.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…4d43backed Under | 52c | 96.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 53c | 89.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 51c | 88.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 88.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 48c | 82.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 54c | 82.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 237 | 46.4%110 W · 127 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 53c | 82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…aae7backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc883…4ea1backed Under | 74c | 54.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee92…7ec3backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…9badbacked Over | 48c | 48.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Under | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Under | 51c | 44.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Under | 65c | 32.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 76 | 69.7%53 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…b4a5backed Over | 48c | 31.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8513…7d41backed Under | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Under | 51c | 27.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 40c | 27.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 50c | 27.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Over | 49c | 25.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 52c | 22.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 48c | 21.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…256fbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 174.5this page
- Alyssa Thomas: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut SunConnecticut Sun won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 172.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 173.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5)Connecticut Sun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.