TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Champions League · resolved market

Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Aarhus GF O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,548
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,868

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,548 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0e1…99dbbacked Under52c7,793$4,045 inLost-$4,045.412653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf45…401fbacked Under11c5,476$600 inLost-$600250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+213.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4155…fa41backed Over70c3,979$2,798 inWon+$1,181.084077.5%31 W · 9 L+7.5wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+42.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9b78…473dbacked Over53c2,228$1,171 inWon+$1,0577364.4%47 W · 26 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7409…65a6backed Over47c1,705$800 inWon+$905.192272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+37.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over75c1,067$800 inWon+$266.6688631.7%281 W · 605 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under25c1,057$264 inLost-$264.161,02135.3%360 W · 661 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7418…251fbacked Over45c888.89$400 inWon+$488.891560%9 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a1…30d1backed Over49c728$357 inWon+$371.281681.3%13 W · 3 L+4.6wins+0.29per pick53cpaid+65.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcd5e…9d93backed Over49c728$357 inWon+$371.281154.5%6 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick27cpaid+84.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x48fb…ced4backed Under11c281.03$32 inLost-$32.03911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+320.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under15c120$18 inLost-$185530.9%17 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2126…aeebbacked Under57c117$66 inLost-$66.36160.7%37 W · 24 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over45c62$28 inWon+$34.138253.9%206 W · 176 L+21.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd756…ce84backed Under18c60$11 inLost-$11.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under28c41.48$11 inLost-$11.4844647.3%211 W · 235 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1d2…c938backed Over72c41.48$30 inWon+$11.481291.7%11 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick70cpaid+30.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed Over49c40$20 inWon+$20.4580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+92.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.