Champions League · resolved market
Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61e4a71c5c68d08dc441130d70a8513c3a3e048beae958c46dd01a012832d7ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 74c | 26,875$19,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,889.27 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 25c | 10,122$2,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,546.1 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa704…11c1backed Over | 73c | 5,442$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.43 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 26c | 4,441$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.63 | 446 | 47.3%211 W · 235 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 27c | 2,500$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.25 | 318 | 47.5%151 W · 167 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 26c | 2,500$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.63 | 338 | 44.7%151 W · 187 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 28c | 2,000$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.86 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 26c | 1,792$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.14 | 432 | 52.3%226 W · 206 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 1,760$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.41 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 26c | 1,428$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.22 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 26c | 1,399$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.87 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 26c | 1,383$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.98 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Over | 73c | 1,370$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.86 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 26c | 1,169$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.94 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 28c | 1,014$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.94 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 71c | 970.9$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.33 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 27c | 855.59$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.31 | 467 | 41.5%194 W · 273 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…4a17backed Over | 62c | 623.27$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 26c | 440$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Over | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 26c | 398.21$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.87 | 222 | 45%100 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 26c | 390$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 33c | 322.81$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 381 | 42.8%163 W · 218 L | -22.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed Over | 70c | 221.43$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 71c | 209.27$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 26c | 199.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…6ca8backed Over | 73c | 171.23$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 68c | 141.3$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 114 | 64.9%74 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Under | 27c | 74.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 72c | 59.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 154 | 48.7%75 W · 79 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…c938backed Over | 73c | 54.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 70cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 33c | 51.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over | 74c | 51.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…6cedbacked Under | 35c | 40.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Over | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Over | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x746c…36aabacked Over | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 73c | 23.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -5.6wins | -0.29per pick | 66cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…a49ebacked Over | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Over | 75c | 18.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac2…4fd8backed Over | 67c | 16.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 80c | 13.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 1.5this page
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Aarhus GF 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Aarhus GF O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Aarhus GF O/U 2.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 1.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 2.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 3.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 4.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-1.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-2.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.