Champions League · resolved market
Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12267568b2e15877bd4ba6dbb6aa8e3aaecde4e5a25cc51aa670bcf20f59084b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 5,995$2,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,770.79 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 24c | 3,371$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,562.28 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 24c | 3,028$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300.22 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 2,555$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.06 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 76c | 2,415$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.33 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 60c | 1,876$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.32 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…4cbfbacked Over | 48c | 1,300$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 57c | 1,252$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.26 | 467 | 41.5%194 W · 273 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 76c | 1,229$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.48 | 318 | 47.5%151 W · 167 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 75c | 1,012$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.79 | 338 | 44.7%151 W · 187 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 45c | 555.87$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.85 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 30c | 457$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.19 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 25c | 435.96$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.97 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 73c | 391.44$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.92 | 274 | 50.7%139 W · 135 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…3876backed Under | 76c | 389.47$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…3385backed Over | 39c | 324.85$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.73 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…51abbacked Over | 43c | 306.17$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.63 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.32per pick | 41cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 76c | 300$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 432 | 52.3%226 W · 206 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…c994backed Under | 47c | 261$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 30c | 253.13$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 15c | 217$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 245 | 45.3%111 W · 134 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0c…7047backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 76c | 200$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 381 | 42.8%163 W · 218 L | -22.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 24c | 155.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 76c | 128$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 60c | 104.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ad…74d3backed Over | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Over | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 44c | 83.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 308 | 56.8%175 W · 133 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed Under | 70c | 71.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 75c | 71.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 222 | 45%100 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…583cbacked Under | 27c | 58.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 52c | 55.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 46c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Under | 76c | 41.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4078…eed8backed Over | 75c | 40.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd852…6267backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Under | 76c | 37.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 47c | 35.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 187 | 36.4%68 W · 119 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Under | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 42c | 33.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 40c | 32.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed Over | 62c | 32.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 69c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Under | 64c | 29.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 39c | 27.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7aa…2b84backed Over | 70c | 25.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Under | 51c | 23.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 54c | 20.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 382 | 53.9%206 W · 176 L | +21.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Under | 76c | 18.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Under | 74c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Over | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…6767backed Under | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…d5fdbacked Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 3.5this page
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Aarhus GF 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Aarhus GF O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Aarhus GF O/U 2.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 1.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 2.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 4.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-1.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-2.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.