Champions League · resolved market
Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75484a58ad34719068f0e667a79de20aef6401b7c8d8209712335f22a43646d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb76b…d1f0backed Under | 19c | 600.87$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.78 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 63c | 515.4$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.88 | 382 | 53.9%206 W · 176 L | +21.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 506.54$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.24 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd684…7e92backed Over | 47c | 505$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.35 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…cdf0backed Over | 39c | 499.98$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.99 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…47b2backed Under | 80c | 376.16$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 69c | 348.62$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.04 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0852…655cbacked Over | 30c | 335.1$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.9 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 69c | 299.97$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.98 | 381 | 42.8%163 W · 218 L | -22.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 70c | 210$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.34 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Over | 39c | 199.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.99 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 55c | 191$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.41 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…c93abacked Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 30c | 144$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48fb…ced4backed Under | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +320.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 67c | 138.14$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 32c | 136.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.23 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2deb…a787backed Over | 33c | 97.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 66c | 93.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 69c | 72.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5e…9d93backed Over | 35c | 71.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 27cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 28c | 59.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 71c | 38.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 306 | 56.9%174 W · 132 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 66c | 36.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 245 | 45.3%111 W · 134 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 69c | 29.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…eb51backed Under | 80c | 24.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 79cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…203abacked Under | 80c | 24.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…1fd2backed Under | 80c | 24.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 79cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Under | 61c | 22.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Aarhus GF 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Aarhus GF O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Aarhus GF O/U 2.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 1.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 2.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 3.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 4.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-1.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-2.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.