MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa84640b4cb7efde4cf6848a76de1d36b2776500327927c62c837a9003ae9206b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 13,889$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,888.89 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 9,578$5,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,656.81 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 1,562$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.79 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 58c | 1,249$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 1,070$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.8 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 1,030$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.19 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ec…0959backed Atlanta Braves | 79c | 899.28$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.01 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 791.43$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.52 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 648.85$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.9 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 618.33$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.78 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 63c | 603.58$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.31 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 499.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 481.31$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.42 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 400$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 359.98$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.39 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 283.61$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.51 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Atlanta Braves | 38c | 218.37$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.23 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 210.25$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.56 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 44c | 209.36$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.67 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 193.6$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 131$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.62 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 98.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 86.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 74.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…53bbbacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Atlanta Braves | 44c | 49.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 704 | 50.1%353 W · 351 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 42.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 39.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Atlanta Braves | 35c | 31.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 25.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 25.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…5e53backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 22.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.