MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1cfc98397ee39c9bc82ffa9d3332e5e3eb1eb8e5aa1241fc36b2e931fc4c310
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 9,243$5,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,169.19 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 8,698$3,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,893.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 1,732$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 1,515$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.23 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Atlanta Braves | 53c | 1,110$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.73 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…e548backed Cincinnati Reds | 20c | 510$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 80c | 434.45$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.92 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 68c | 388.26$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.69 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 77c | 179.9$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.94 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Atlanta Braves | 42c | 121$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 120.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Atlanta Braves | 24c | 120.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 110.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b8…deb6backed Cincinnati Reds | 27c | 107.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 104$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cincinnati Reds | 21c | 94.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 93.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 66.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 58.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 53.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 51.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Atlanta Braves | 48c | 50.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Atlanta Braves | 55c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Atlanta Braves | 56c | 36.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Atlanta Braves | 47c | 22.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…accebacked Atlanta Braves | 49c | 22.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 19.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.