MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f74889d6e0672ecf6ded701801e072bf293c344a7dff5734fe75fe16536b0a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 1,585$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.55 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Atlanta Braves | 56c | 1,476$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.52 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Atlanta Braves | 79c | 1,263$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.19 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 1,036$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 969.16$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.55 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 619.42$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.87 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 58c | 528.78$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.15 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 509.25$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 457.55$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.17 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 369.43$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.39 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 357.86$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.5 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 62c | 326.97$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.47 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ee…2e1dbacked Atlanta Braves | 48c | 326.84$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.95 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Braves | 28c | 260.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.6 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 240.56$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.2 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x432d…bda6backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 196.47$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 160.01$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 156.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 155.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 129$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Atlanta Braves | 51c | 124$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 119.89$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Atlanta Braves | 56c | 116$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 85.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 30c | 71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 69.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cincinnati Reds | 18c | 68.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Atlanta Braves | 28c | 64.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds | 22c | 62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 61.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 59.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Atlanta Braves | 30c | 51.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Atlanta Braves | 31c | 51.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…ae83backed Atlanta Braves | 30c | 49.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 47.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 47.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 36.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves | 43c | 35.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Atlanta Braves | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 34.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0d…92e9backed Atlanta Braves | 50c | 29.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…5e53backed Atlanta Braves | 50c | 27.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 26.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 20.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.