Tennis · resolved market
Santa Cruz: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Facundo Mena
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa84950ed8c078dd4a5b84fa701162137341670f9dd7938fe410d5a56398488da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Facundo Menaof Juan Pablo Varillas, Facundo Mena
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb31…7b95backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 35c | 2,400$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.29 | 680 | 26.2%178 W · 502 L | -24.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Facundo Mena | 55c | 2,272$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.16 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Facundo Mena | 36c | 1,402$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.69 | 1,512 | 24.1%364 W · 1,148 L | -41.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Facundo Mena | 43c | 916.39$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.34 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 58c | 839.89$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.41 | 141 | 62.4%88 W · 53 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…b115backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 59c | 803.87$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.09 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…937abacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 30c | 798.53$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.88 | 521 | 33%172 W · 349 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 57c | 794.01$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.58 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Facundo Mena | 49c | 694.58$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.24 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f35…95dabacked Facundo Mena | 68c | 600$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 465 | 44.3%206 W · 259 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Facundo Mena | 68c | 552.42$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 377 | 41.4%156 W · 221 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 57c | 438.57$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 1,926 | 55.4%1,067 W · 859 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 59c | 423.35$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.77 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Facundo Mena | 55c | 415.1$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 5,422 | 56.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L | +231.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…1ad7backed Facundo Mena | 77c | 413.21$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.86 | 270 | 40%108 W · 162 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Facundo Mena | 60c | 356$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.16 | 582 | 48.3%281 W · 301 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ba…b283backed Facundo Mena | 40c | 312.68$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.61 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…9caebacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 33c | 290.76$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 445 | 27.2%121 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Facundo Mena | 46c | 262.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.4 | 4,760 | 49.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L | +176.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Facundo Mena | 42c | 242.67$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.86 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb002…103dbacked Facundo Mena | 41c | 241.15$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.28 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 73c | 235.95$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.42 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 40c | 226.16$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 2,089 | 52.2%1,090 W · 999 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Facundo Mena | 61c | 207.74$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Facundo Mena | 53c | 192.27$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 60c | 132.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d5…1a5bbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 42c | 132.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…072cbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 59c | 115.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 65c | 115.15$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Facundo Mena | 55c | 112.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…0f5bbacked Facundo Mena | 48c | 108.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Facundo Mena | 42c | 99.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 66c | 97.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2d…23d8backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 58c | 97.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 58c | 97.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 395 | 34.4%136 W · 259 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6194…3d95backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 58c | 97.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a83…f94dbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 59c | 96.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a08…64a7backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 59c | 95.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Facundo Mena | 37c | 93.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 52c | 84.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2,440 | 51.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ed…72efbacked Facundo Mena | 43c | 72.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 387 | 54.3%210 W · 177 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 77c | 71.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 819 | 56.9%466 W · 353 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Facundo Mena | 55c | 67.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 30c | 64.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 2,135 | 56%1,195 W · 940 L | +41.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Facundo Mena | 49c | 59.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e3…4874backed Facundo Mena | 74c | 49.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 918 | 80.5%739 W · 179 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Facundo Mena | 54c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 24c | 46.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 60c | 45.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165b…711cbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 39c | 43.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 269 | 53.2%143 W · 126 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ded…68a3backed Facundo Mena | 69c | 42.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 885 | 60.2%533 W · 352 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Facundo Mena | 53c | 39.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Facundo Mena | 38c | 37.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 643 | 58.8%378 W · 265 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…fb12backed Facundo Mena | 65c | 33.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 211 | 72%152 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…f1ccbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 37c | 30.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 369 | 44.4%164 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a2…23a0backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 58c | 29.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 58c | 29.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Facundo Mena | 76c | 25.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 567 | 54.5%309 W · 258 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a7…e95dbacked Facundo Mena | 62c | 22.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 57c | 21.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 977 | 45.2%442 W · 535 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Facundo Mena | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 433 | 59.6%258 W · 175 L | +26.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…2b3abacked Facundo Mena | 76c | 16.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 503 | 64.6%325 W · 178 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.