TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Argentina Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Luciano Darderi

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cerundoloof Cerundolo, Darderi
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$268,216
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$282,684

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $268,216 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1624…bf63backed Darderi40c25,999$10,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,446.181,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Darderi40c23,309$9,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,358.995644.6%25 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cerundolo69c16,996$11,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,202.618,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Cerundolo50c14,869$7,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,490.7955646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Cerundolo50c12,126$6,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,062.8776140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cerundolo65c10,455$6,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,687.842,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Darderi16c10,166$1,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.5612442.7%53 W · 71 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Darderi51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.9743051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Cerundolo47c9,177$4,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,897.5128338.9%110 W · 173 L+0.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Darderi50c8,970$4,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,485.1210541%43 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Cerundolo73c6,200$4,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,685.9123731.6%75 W · 162 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48e1…10cfbacked Darderi53c5,953$3,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,144.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Darderi46c5,787$2,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,68028444.7%127 W · 157 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Darderi20c5,179$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05072132%231 W · 490 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Darderi53c4,756$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50041645.4%189 W · 227 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cerundolo71c3,587$2,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.197,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Darderi52c3,500$1,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8155860.3%35 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Darderi45c3,448$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,568.141,11842.8%479 W · 639 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Darderi52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.996350.8%32 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Darderi49c3,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.333,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Darderi21c2,979$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.4813456.7%76 W · 58 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3905…82fcbacked Cerundolo58c2,815$1,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.645563.6%35 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Darderi21c2,722$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.0181349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Darderi49c2,675$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.1138133.9%129 W · 252 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Darderi29c2,477$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.82,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9e…6838backed Darderi53c2,332$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.293231.3%10 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Cerundolo65c2,309$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.3621147.9%101 W · 110 L-16.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdfab…2b1bbacked Cerundolo53c2,147$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.32450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Darderi50c2,118$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4afb…ed2bbacked Cerundolo49c2,052$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.316636.7%61 W · 105 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdd4…7696backed Darderi1c2,038$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0843749%214 W · 223 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c54…09c4backed Darderi49c2,036$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003342.4%14 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Cerundolo50c2,009$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.0731753.6%170 W · 147 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f40…bd86backed Cerundolo47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0601540%6 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Cerundolo49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02057645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Cerundolo48c1,938$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.765547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3032…9b05backed Darderi53c1,887$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006934.8%24 W · 45 L-9.9wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-31.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x16b4…168fbacked Darderi22c1,811$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x848e…d966backed Cerundolo65c1,650$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Cerundolo48c1,605$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.637,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Darderi48c1,500$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72534745.2%157 W · 190 L+16.5wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Cerundolo47c1,500$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.9793055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Cerundolo48c1,300$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6761,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Cerundolo79c1,260$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.751,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb74b…f6b7backed Cerundolo46c1,234$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.632445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Darderi52c996.28$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52011353.1%60 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Cerundolo66c987$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.5865558.9%386 W · 269 L-32.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Cerundolo49c971$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.2187251.1%446 W · 426 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b4…150ebacked Darderi55c931.39$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.3714947%70 W · 79 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Darderi51c913$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.6333241.6%138 W · 194 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…4273backed Darderi35c878.16$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.130%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Darderi52c865.38$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501,10650.3%556 W · 550 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5d…4183backed Cerundolo53c754.72$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.7214250.7%72 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Cerundolo48c729.17$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.1765849.4%325 W · 333 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3d…189dbacked Cerundolo49c714.29$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.294351.2%22 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa36c…5754backed Cerundolo64c693.95$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.8242042.6%179 W · 241 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Cerundolo45c650$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.524340.3%98 W · 145 L-11.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0ce…99f6backed Darderi31c646.68$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20017936.9%66 W · 113 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbebf…9baebacked Cerundolo67c643.67$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.990854.5%495 W · 413 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Cerundolo50c632.82$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.4120043.5%87 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b61…599cbacked Cerundolo49c612.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.242343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Cerundolo66c607.05$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.612,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa02b…70d6backed Cerundolo48c600$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31217462.6%109 W · 65 L+34.2wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+35.2%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x0f97…a9b3backed Darderi27c556.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.3326227.9%73 W · 189 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb4c…1ca9backed Darderi15c528.22$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2315363.4%97 W · 56 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x545d…c122backed Darderi38c506.86$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19546030.4%140 W · 320 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Cerundolo47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26514940.9%61 W · 88 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1f2…e9dabacked Cerundolo75c492.93$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.93366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Darderi38c452$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.194461.4%27 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Cerundolo49c448.98$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.9843448.4%210 W · 224 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x087f…075ebacked Cerundolo55c436.55$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.512360.9%14 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Darderi46c436.09$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0121…f82cbacked Darderi50c424$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2124030%12 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba06…0004backed Darderi50c421$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.515151%77 W · 74 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cerundolo67c416.41$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.4911,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed19…83babacked Cerundolo49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1684736%305 W · 542 L-35.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3be6…05b1backed Cerundolo49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.169955.6%55 W · 44 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0676…f0f0backed Cerundolo49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1620552.7%108 W · 97 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf95a…d895backed Darderi35c395.21$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9618932.3%61 W · 128 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7252…8f5fbacked Cerundolo51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.161060%6 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Cerundolo51c375$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.7548552.8%256 W · 229 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Cerundolo48c373.28$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.324,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x606d…1aafbacked Darderi53c348.45$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.684461.4%27 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Darderi50c314.43$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.227146.5%33 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cf0…df85backed Cerundolo48c312.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.53125.8%8 W · 23 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-46.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Cerundolo50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Darderi25c294.92$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.651,13027.9%315 W · 815 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Darderi40c294.56$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9449143%211 W · 280 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5562…3b41backed Darderi53c283$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0314949.7%74 W · 75 L-13.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Cerundolo50c275.83$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.0935032.3%113 W · 237 L-9.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b7f…e826backed Cerundolo49c275.54$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.5469350.5%350 W · 343 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Cerundolo62c250$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.19567.4%64 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc25c…f6dfbacked Darderi40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005145.1%23 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Cerundolo48c245$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.431332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…8465backed Cerundolo50c228$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Darderi53c225.88$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.7211245.5%51 W · 61 L-9.4wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2dc3…9d67backed Darderi51c222.42$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11439431%122 W · 272 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63f2…e0c9backed Darderi48c209.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.87356.2%41 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc5…3984backed Darderi51c208.98$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a37…7b01backed Cerundolo49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.082454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.