Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8710374d949733c92409fa2b7f8840f0901d32332ccf99447c8c35b3d8bd8bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 550.01$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 15c | 348.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 18c | 299.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 276.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 13c | 255.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 236.7$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 78c | 217.51$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 33c | 215.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 189.11$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 170$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 19c | 159.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 153.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 9c | 147.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…9b39backed No | 61c | 138.23$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 66c | 134.02$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 15c | 129.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 129$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 127.33$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 54c | 125$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 110.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 17c | 109.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 109$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 107.35$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 78.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 32c | 78.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 68c | 77.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 48c | 69.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed Yes | 49c | 66.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 32c | 60.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8e21backed No | 79c | 60.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 69c | 57.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 54.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x609f…2fc0backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 38c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 56c | 43.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 43.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 37c | 40.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 38.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 37.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 63c | 37.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e7…b9a1backed Yes | 54c | 36.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 31.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 48c | 31.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 76c | 30.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 56c | 30.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…d3f4backed No | 69c | 28.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 27.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 53c | 27.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 52c | 22.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 21.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…1780backed No | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 68c | 16.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.